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| A time series analysis on under 5 mortality ratein Zhejiang Province |
| LV Na, JIN Dong-mei, QI Shao-shuai, LIANG Qian-qian, DAI Ling-zi, WU Tian, FAN Wen-jie, XU Yu-ying, ZHANG Wei-fang, LI Xiu-yang, YE Huai-zhuang
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| Zhejiang University School of Public Health, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310058, China |
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Abstract ObjectiveTo study the temporal distribution regular pattern of under 5 mortality rate(U5MR) from 1998 to 2014 in Zhejiang Province, and to predict the under 5 mortality rate in 2015.MethodsA time series ARIMA (p, d, q) forecasting model for U5MR was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 statistical analysis software. ResultsThe UMAR showed downward trend. The ARIMA(2,1, 2)model of U5MR from 1998 to 2014 in Zhejiang Province is yt=-0.696+0.636yt-1+0.024yt-2+0.340yt-3+αt-0.003αt-1+0.997αt-2,and the model fitting was good. Each of the actual mortality was consistent with the trend of model prediction, and was within the 95% confidence interval. The predicted value of U5MR was 4.08‰ (95% CI: 1.52‰- 6.64‰) in 2015.ConclusionTime series analysis is an effective way to analyze the temporal distribution regular pattern of U5MR, which could be used for short-term prediction.
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Received: 25 February 2015
Revised: 17 April 2015
Published: 05 January 2018
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