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| Impact of temperature on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease |
| SUN Xiuxiu, SHEN Jianyong, YANG Zhongrong, LUO Xiaofu, ZHAGN Zizhe
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| Huzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huzhou, Zhejiang 313000, China |
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Abstract Objective To examine the impact of temperature on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD), so as to provide a basis for research on the impact of climate on HFMD. Methods HFMD incidence data in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2022 were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Concurrent meteorological data were obtained from the Huzhou Meteorological Bureau. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was employed to analyze the impact of temperature on HFMD incidence. Results A total of 65 059 cases of HFMD were reported in Huzhou City from 2010 to 2022, with incidence peaks occurring from April to July and from October to November. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles (P5, P25, P50, P75, and P95) of daily average temperature were 2.5, 9.4, 17.8, 24.7, and 30.6 ℃, respectively. The results from the DLNM analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between daily average temperature and HFMD incidence, which exhibited an irregular "M" shape. The incidence peaks were observed at 6.5 ℃ (RR=1.596, 95%CI: 1.154-2.207) and 25.7 ℃ (RR=3.257, 95%CI: 2.614-4.058), respectively. The maximum single-day effect was observed at a daily average temperature of -6.2 ℃ at lag 0 day (RR=1.250, 95%CI: 1.100-1.420), while the minimum single-day effect was observed at a daily average temperature of 34.6 ℃ at lag 0 day (RR=0.881, 95%CI: 0.826-0.940). The impact of daily average temperature at P5 on the incidence of HFMD showed RR values greater than 1 at lag 0, 3, 27, and 30 days, but less than 1 at lag 9 and 12 days, with no significant cumulative lag effect. In contrast, for the daily average temperature at P95, the RR values less than 1 at lag 15, 18, and 21 days, with significant cumulative lag effects identified. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in Huzhou City peaks from April to July and again from October to November. There exists a nonlinear relationship and lag effect between temperature and HFMD incidence, with particular attention drawn to the impact of extreme temperatures on the disease's onset.
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Received: 11 June 2025
Revised: 27 August 2025
Published: 20 November 2025
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