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| Association between incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors |
| YANG Ya1, FEI Jie1, YANG Yiwei1, ZHANG Bing1, ZHANG Qian1, LU Yihan2
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1. Jiading District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 201800, China;
2. School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China |
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Abstract Objective To examine the association between incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors, so as to provide the basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The number of HFMD cases in Jiading District, Shanghai Municipality from 2016 to 2023 were collected through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and meteorological data were obtained from the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau. The associations of daily average temperature, daily average relative humidity, and daily average atmospheric pressure with the daily number of HFMD cases were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Results A total of 21 555 HFMD cases were reported in Jiading District from 2016 to 2023, with an average annual incidence of 132.57/105. There were 12 762 male cases (59.21%) and 8 793 female cases (40.79%). The main peak of incidence occurred from June to August, and the secondary peak was from October to December. DLNM analysis showed that the incidence risk of HFMD first increased and then decreased with the increase of daily average temperature, and first decreased and then increased with the prolongation of the lag time. The cumulative lag risk was higher when the daily average temperature ranged from 18.4 to 35.1 ℃, and the maximum cumulative lag effect was observed at 27.8 ℃ (RR=5.522, 95%CI: 4.751-6.370). The incidence risk of HFMD first increased and then decreased with the increase of daily average relative humidity, and first decreased, then increased and then decreased again with the prolongation of the lag time. The cumulative lag risk was higher when the daily average relative humidity ranged from 71.7% and 90.8%, and the maximum cumulative lag effect was observed at 81.8% (RR=1.603, 95%CI: 1.321-1.995). The incidence risk of HFMD decreased with the increase of daily average atmospheric pressure, and decreased with the prolongation of the lag time when the daily average atmospheric pressure was greater than 1 015.80 hPa. When the daily average atmospheric pressure was less than 1 015.80 hPa, the incidence risk of HFMD increased with the prolongation of the lag time. The maximum cumulative lag effect was observed at 986.80 hPa (RR=8.513, 95%CI: 1.401-36.625). Conclusion The incidence risk of HFMD in Jiading District initially increases and then decreases with increasing temperature and relative humidity, while it decreases with increasing atmospheric pressure, and these effects exhibit a lagged response.
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Received: 29 October 2024
Revised: 05 March 2025
Published: 16 April 2025
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