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| Impact of heat wave on the incidence of foodborne diseases |
| SONG Hejia, SUN Yangming, JIA Juanjuan, LIN Yun
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| Jiaxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314050, China |
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Abstract Objective To explore the impact of heat wave on the incidence of foodborne diseases, so as to provide the basis for preventing foodborne diseases in summer. Methods Data on foodborne disease cases from June to September each year in Jiaxing City from 2018 to 2023 were collected through the Zhejiang Provincial Foodborne Disease Surveillance Platform. Meteorological data were obtained from the Jiaxing Meteorological Bureau. Air quality data were collected from the National Urban Air Quality Real-time Release Platform. Heat wave were defined based on temperature thresholds and durations. The impact of heat wave on the incidence of foodborne diseases were analyzed by a time stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) and attributable fraction (AF) were calculated to compare the cumulative lagged risks and disease burdens across different genders, age groups, and disease types. Results From June to September each year between 2018 and 2023, a total of 13 026 foodborne disease cases were reported in Jiaxing City, including 6 646 male cases and 6 380 female cases. Among them, 746 cases were aged <15 years, 10 910 cases were aged 15-65 years, and 1 370 cases were aged >65 years. There were 1 425 cases of infectious diarrhea, 9 956 cases of acute gastroenteritis, and 1 645 cases of other foodborne diseases. The DLNM analysis revealed that heat waves defined in different ways increased the risk of foodborne diseases (all CRR>1, P<0.05), and the risk of disease incidence rose with increasing temperature thresholds and durations. When the daily mean temperature was not lower than the 95th percentile of the daily mean temperature from 2018 to 2023 and lasted for at least 4 days, the Akaike Information Criterion was minimized, and the cumulative lagged risk and disease burden of foodborne diseases were relatively high, with a CRR value of 1.32 (95%CI: 1.09-1.60) and an AF value of 2.81% (95%CI: 1.05%-4.31%). Among them, females, individuals aged 15-65 years, and cases of acute gastroenteritis were more significantly affected by heat wave days, with CRR values of 1.37 (95%CI: 1.12-1.67), 1.35 (95%CI: 1.06-1.73), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.09-1.66), respectively, and AF values of 3.00% (95%CI: 0.82%-4.73%), 3.08% (95%CI: 1.27%-4.61%), and 3.00% (95%CI: 1.04%-4.64%), respectively. Conclusions Heat wave have lagged and cumulative effects on the risk of foodborne disease incidence, increasing both the risk and disease burden. Females, individuals aged 15-65 years, and cases of acute gastroenteritis are more significantly affected by heat wave days.
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Received: 02 January 2025
Revised: 24 April 2025
Published: 23 July 2025
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