|
|
|
| Mortality and probability of premature death due to four chronic diseasesin Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021 |
| JIANG Yuanyuan1, WANG Dongfei1, LIN Junying1, LI Yurong1, GAO Yuanyuan1, ZHAO Fangfang1, XU Hong2
|
1. Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311201, China;
2. Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311201, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Objective To investigate the mortality, probability of premature death and trends due to malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies. Methods The deaths of the four diseases in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021 were collected from Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System. The crude mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the attainment of probability of premature death due to the four diseases was evaluated using the targets of probability of premature death control in 2025 and 2030. Results Totally 36 130 deaths due to the four diseases were reported in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021. The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 445.20/105 and 237.81/105, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.427% and -4.051%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death decreased from 9.99% to 7.82%, (AAPC=-4.123%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality of malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, -4.999%, and -6.024%, all P<0.05), while there was no significant trend in the standardized mortality of diabetes (AAPC=-0.847%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.167%, P<0.05), while there was no significant trends seen in the probability of premature death due to diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=0.638%, -5.250% and -2.022%, all P>0.05). The average probability of premature death due to the four diseases decreased by 4.00% each year, and decreased by 6.64% in 2025 and 5.42% in 2030 as predicted, which were both lower than the target values of 7.99% and 6.99%. Conclusions The mortality and probability of premature death due to the four diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021, with the probability of premature death of malignant tumors decreased significantly. It is predicted that the probability of premature death of the four diseases can reach the target in 2025 and 2030.
|
|
Received: 05 December 2023
Revised: 08 January 2024
Published: 21 February 2024
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 中国居民营养与慢性病状况报告(2020年)[J]. 营养学报,2020,42(6):521.
[2] World Health Organization.Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2014 [R]. Geneva:WHO,2014.
[3] 梁长流,张翊媛,周华涛,等. 阜阳市2018—2021年四大类慢性病死亡状况及其早死概率分析[J]. 安徽预防医学杂志,2023,29(2):104-108.
[4] 严月康,曹洪敏,杨荣荣,等. 2015—2021年赣州市主要慢性病早死概率变化趋势及预测分析[J]. 中国农村卫生事业管理,2023,43(5):370-374,312.
[5] 聂东梅,李一鹏,黄妍. 2012—2021年江门市4类慢性病早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学,2023,35(7):602-606.
[6] 中华人民共和国国务院. 中国防治慢性病中长期规划(2017—2025 年)[J]. 中国实用乡村医生杂志,2017,24(11):6-11.
[7] 中国共产党中央委员会,中华人民共和国国务院.“健康中国 2030”规划纲要[J]. 中国实用乡村医生杂志,2017,24(7):1-12.
[8] 顾景范. 《中国居民营养与慢性病状况报告(2015)》解读[J].营养学报,2016,28(6):525-529.
[9] 杨梨丽,林启,王玉超,等. 2009—2018年舟山市4类主要慢性病早死概率及“健康中国 2030”目标分析[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制,2021,29(2):140-143.
[10] 习婧媛,韩颖,陈湘. 2010—2019年中国居民四类慢性非传染病的死亡趋势及差别分解分析[J]. 现代预防医学,2022,49(12):2119-2125.
[11] 曾新颖,李镒冲,刘世炜,等. 1990—2015年中国四类慢性病早死概率与“健康中国2030”下降目标分析[J]. 中华预防医学杂志,2017,51(3):209-214.
[12] 乔冬菊,王良友,娄雪萍,等. 2011—2018年浙江省台州市主要慢性病死亡水平及早死概率分析[J]. 上海预防医学,2022,34(12):1207-1213.
[13] 丁贤彬,唐文革,毛德强,等. 慢性病综合防控示范区建设对主要慢性病早死概率的影响[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制,2018,26(1):1-4.
[14] 刘倩云,钟定威,马敏杰,等. 2015—2019年中山市城区居民主要慢性病早死概率变化分析[J]. 中国公共卫生管理,2021,37(6):803-806.
[15] 方柯红,朱冰,黄利明,等. 杭州市成年居民营养健康知识调查[J]. 预防医学,2023,35(8):710-713.
[16] 徐倩倩,朱莹莹,冯宏伟,等. 2018—2021年宁波市成人吸烟情况调查[J]. 预防医学,2022,34(5):461-465.
[17] 黄文,李金,陈奇峰. 绍兴市老年人群慢性病危险因素聚集性分析[J]. 预防医学,2019,31(11):1112-1115.
[18] 徐红,黄玮奕. 2005—2018年南通市4类慢性病早死概率及其变化趋势[J]. 中国慢性病预防与控制,2021,29(4):314-317.
[19] 杨华凤,陈旭鹏,洪忻,等. 南京市2011—2016年主要慢性病早死概率变化趋势分析[J]. 中国卫生统计,2018,35(5):769-771.
[20] 朱晓云,张亚宁,马碧萍. 2002—2017年上海市金山区慢性非传染性疾病死亡水平及其所致过早死亡风险[J]. 中国预防医学杂志,2019,20(10):966-971.
[21] 王永,应焱燕,陈洁平,等. 2002—2022年宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析[J]. 预防医学,2023,35(6):496-500,505. |
|
|
|
