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| Risk assessment of COVID-19 cases imported from aboard to Zhejiang Province |
| WU Haocheng, DING Zheyuan, WU Chen, LU Qinbao, LI Fudong, LIN Junfen
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| Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China |
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Abstract Objeetive To evaluate the imported risk of COVID-19 cases from aboard to Zhejiang Province,so as to provide reference for control strategies. Methods The epidemic data of COVID-19 in 9 foreign countries（US,UK,Italy,etc.）and Zhejiang Province were collected,as well as the number of entry persons. The imported risk values of COVID-19 cases to 90 counties（cities or districts）of Zhejiang Province and from the 9 countries during March 7th and 30th were calculated and normalized to the imported risk indexes. The imported risk indexes were classified into five levels from high to low according to percentiles. The imported risk of 90 counties（cities or districts）,the developing trend and the source were analyzed. Results A total of 39 confirmed cases and 24 asymptomatic cases were imported to Zhejiang Province untill March 30th. There were 10,13,22,21 and 24 counties（cities or districts）with high,medium high,medium,medium low and low imported risk,respectively. Qingtian had the highest imported risk（0.43）,followed by Ruian（0.32）and Wencheng（0.29）. The imported risks in 80（88.89%）counties（cities or districts）showed increased trend. The highest imported risk came from Italy（0.51）,followed by US（0.14）and Spain（0.11）. The imported risk in Wenzhou and Lishui mainly came from Italy and Spain,while that in the other areas mainly came from US,Germany and UK. Conclusions The risk of imported COVID-19 cases from aboard to Zhejiang Province showed an upward trend since March. The areas at high and medium high risk lay in southeast Zhejiang and the downtown of Hangzhou. The source of imported risk were maimly from Italy,US and Spain,but varied in counties.
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Received: 08 April 2020
Revised: 20 April 2020
Published: 22 June 2020
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