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| Epidemic trend of COVID-19 in some high--epidemic countries |
| REN Jiangping, LING Feng, SUN Jimin, CHEN Enfu
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| Zhejiang Provinial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China |
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Abstract Objeetive To learn the epidemic status of COVID-19 in some high-epidemic countries, so as to provide reference for prevention and control of imported COVID-19 in China. Methods We collected the data of all the countries who totally reported over ten thousand cases of COVID-19 by March 29, 2020, and analyzed the epidemic trend by using the incidence rate, the case fatality rate, the five-day moving average time dependent reproduction number (Rt) as well as the average daily increase rate. Results Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, France, lran, UK, USA and China were inchuded in the analysis. Spain( 15.46/100 000), Switzerland(15.44/100 000) and Italy ( 15.30/100 000)ranked top three in the incidence rate of COVID-19. Italy (10.84%), Spain (7.88%) andlan (7.11%) ranked top three in the case atality rate. By March27, the values of five-day moving average Rt in USA, UK, Iran, Spain and France were all more than one. The average daily increase rate in China had changed negative since March 6. The average daily increase rates in the other eight countries ranged from 41.58% to 18.17%, and the trend was slow down from March 20 to 29, among which Germany, Switzerland and Italy had the largest decline of 35.60%, 29.76% and 25.56%, respectively Conclusions By March 29, the epidemie situation of COVID-19 in China was under controls; the situations in ltaly, Germany and Switzerland tended to be stable; while the situations in USA, UK, Iran, Spain and France maintained an upward tmend.
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Received: 07 April 2020
Revised: 12 May 2020
Published: 22 June 2020
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