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预防医学  2019, Vol. 31 Issue (6): 553-557    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2019.06.004
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应用中断时间序列评价甲肝疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划对甲肝发病的影响
张超, 罗小福, 徐秦儿
湖州市疾病预防控制中心,浙江 湖州 313000
Inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in Expanded Program on Immunization on hepatitis A incidence by interrupted time-series analysis
ZHANG Chao, LUO Xiao-fu, XU Qin-er
Huzhou Center for Disease Control, Prevention, Huzhou, Zhejiang313000, China
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摘要 目的 分析湖州市甲型病毒性肝炎(甲肝)疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划对甲肝发病的影响。方法 通过《湖州市传染病年鉴》和中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集1998—2017年湖州市甲肝发病资料,以2008年甲肝疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划为干预实施时间点构建中断线性回归模型,检验纳入前后甲肝发病率水平改变量和斜率改变量指标,分析扩大免疫规划对甲肝发病率的影响。结果 甲肝疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划前,湖州市甲肝年均发病率为10.228/10万,发病率呈下降趋势,平均每年下降1.558/10万;纳入扩大免疫规划后,年均发病率为1.721/10万,呈下降趋势,平均每年下降0.263/10万;甲肝发病率平均每年下降速度较纳入扩大免疫规划前降低了1.295/10万。结论 甲肝疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划后,湖州市甲肝年发病水平降低,并对甲肝发病趋势下降产生长期持续的作用。
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张超
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徐秦儿
关键词 甲型病毒性肝炎疫苗扩大免疫规划发病率中断时间序列    
AbstractObjective To assess the impact of inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in Expanded Program on Immunization(EPI)on hepatitis A incidence. Methods The data of patients with hepatitis A from 1998 to 2017 in Huzhou were collected through Huzhou Infectious Diseases Yearbook and China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Interrupted time-series models were constructed using the year 2008 when hepatitis A vaccine was included in EPI as the intervention time point. The influence of hepatitis A vaccine into EPI on the hepatitis A incidence was evaluated by analyzing the changes in the level and slope of incidence before and after hepatitis A vaccine into EPI. Results Before the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in EPI,the average annual incidence rate of hepatitis A was 10.228/100 000 and the incidence of hepatitis A showed a significant descending trend with an annual decrement of 1.558/100 000. After the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in EPI,the average annual incidence rate of hepatitis A was 1.721/100 000 and the incidence of hepatitis A showed a significant descending trend with an annual decrement of 0.263/100 000. The average annual rate of decline in the hepatitis A incidence decreased by 1.295/100 000 after the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in EPI. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis A significantly reduced after inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in EPI,and the EPI strategy had a continuous effect on the decreasing trend of hepatitis A incidence.
Key wordsHepatitis A    Vaccine    Expanded Program on Immunization    Incidence    Interrupted time-series analysis
收稿日期: 2018-11-27      出版日期: 2019-06-03
ZTFLH:  R512.61  
  R181.3  
通信作者: 张超,E-mail:zc511434805@126.com   
作者简介: 张超,硕士,医师,主要从事免疫预防工作
引用本文:   
张超, 罗小福, 徐秦儿. 应用中断时间序列评价甲肝疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划对甲肝发病的影响[J]. 预防医学, 2019, 31(6): 553-557.
ZHANG Chao, LUO Xiao-fu, XU Qin-er. Inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in Expanded Program on Immunization on hepatitis A incidence by interrupted time-series analysis. Preventive Medicine, 2019, 31(6): 553-557.
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http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2019.06.004      或      http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/Y2019/V31/I6/553
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