Trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 based on an age-period-cohort model
ZHENG Wei1, ZHANG Shiyong1, YANG Lundi1, XIONG Huali2
1. Department of AIDS and STDs Control and Prevention, Nanchuan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 408400, China; 2. Rongchang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 402460, China
Abstract：Objective To investigate the trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 and to examine the effect of age, period and cohort on the incidence of HIV/AIDS, so as to provide insights into the improvements of the HIV/AIDS control measures. Methods Data pertaining to incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) datasets, and the trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) using a jointpoint regression model. The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of HIV/AIDS in China were examined with an age-period-cohort model. Results The age-standardized incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared an overall tendency towards a rise in China from 1990 (0.80/105) to 2019 (2.21/105) (AAPC=3.209%, P<0.05), and the incidence of HIV/AIDS showed a tendency towards a rise from 1990 to 1997 (AAPC=9.044%, P<0.05) and from 1997 to 2003 (AAPC=17.598%, P<0.05), a decline from 2006 to 2014 (AAPC=-8.412%, P<0.05) and remained relatively stable from 2003 to 2006 and from 2014 to 2019 (both P>0.05). The incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and peaked among patients at ages of 25 to 29 years (4.93/105) and 75 to 79 years (7.38/105). The risk of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time, and a reduced risk of HIV/AIDS was found from 1990 to 1994 (RR=0.297), from 1995 to 1999 (RR=0.523), from 2005 to 2009 (RR=0.737), from 2010 to 2014 (RR=0.412) and from 2015 to 2019 (RR=0.351) in relative to the period from 2000 to 2004. The risk of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise with the cohort, and a higher risk of HIV/AIDS was found in the 1930-1934 cohort (RR=1.880) and 2000-2004 cohort (RR=2.978) in relative to the 1955-1959 cohort. Conclusions The incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, and remained at a low level since 2014. The adolescents and elderly were high-risk groups of HIV/AIDS. A variety of health education interventions and intensified active HIV/AIDS screening are recommended.
郑伟, 张世勇, 杨纶砥, 熊华利. 基于年龄-时期-队列模型的1990—2019年我国艾滋病发病率趋势分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(8): 665-668,681.
ZHENG Wei, ZHANG Shiyong, YANG Lundi, XIONG Huali. Trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 based on an age-period-cohort model. Preventive Medicine, 2023, 35(8): 665-668,681.
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