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| An analysis on the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors with generalized additive model |
| WU Hao-cheng, LIN Jun-fen, XU Xiao-ping, WU Chen, LU Qin-bao, DING Zhe-yuan
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| The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Zhejiang province,Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China |
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Abstract ObjectiveTo explore the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors in Zhejiang Province. MethodsThe data which was been analyzed including month case of scarlet fever and meteorological factors from JAN 2005 to DEC 2014, were analyzed for the degree and characteristic of the correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors with generalized additive model(GAM) . ResultsThere were negative correlation between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including water vapor pressure and hours of sunshine. There were complex nonlinear correlations between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including precipitation, average barometric pressure, average wind speed and average temperature . The relationship between scarlet fever and meteorological factors including average barometric pressure, average wind speed and average temperature showed approximate quadratic function. The precipitation above3 500(0.1 mm), average barometric pressure above 10 200(0.1 hPa) and under 10 050(0.1 hPa), average wind speed between 18.7-23.6(0.1 m/s)and average temperature between 100-250(0.1 ℃) were the suitable meteorological condition for scarlet fever.ConclusionThere were complex nonlinear correlations between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors. Precipitation,average barometric pressure,average wind speed and average temperature may be associated with the incidence of scarlet fever.
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Received: 24 June 2015
Revised: 17 July 2015
Published: 05 January 2018
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