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| Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of scarlet fever in Wenzhou City from 2015 to 2024 |
| LI Ling, WANG Lili, ZHANG Xinyue, PAN Qiongjiao, LI Wancang
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| Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Wenzhou Institute of Public Health Supervision), Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325000, China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of scarlet fever in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2024, so as to provide a basis for prevention and control for scarlet fever. Methods The data of scarlet fever cases in Wenzhou City from 2015 to 2024 were collected from the Surveillance System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, demographic, and regional distribution characteristics of scarlet fever. Spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal scanning analyses were employed to examine the spatial-temporal clustering of scarlet fever. Results A total of 1 731 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Wenzhou City from 2015 to 2024, with an average annual reported incidence of 2.08/105 , showing a declining trend (AAPC=-11.037%, P<0.05). Incidence peaks occurred from April to June and from November to January of the following year, with seasonal indices all exceeding 100%. The average annual reported incidence was higher in males than in females (2.43/105 vs. 1.70/105, P<0.05). The cases were mainly children aged ≤10 years, with 1 662 cases accounting for 96.01%. Lucheng District, Ouhai District and Taishun County had the top three average annual reported incidences of scarlet fever, at 7.17/105, 5.18/105 and 4.73/105, respectively. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that, spatial clustering of scarlet fever cases in the periods 2015 to 2019 and 2021 to 2024 (Moran's I>0, all P<0.05). Spatio-temporal scanning analysis identified a primary-type clustering and a secondary-type clustering of scarlet fever in Wenzhou City from 2015 to 2024. The primary-type clustering was centered on Wutian Subdistrict in Ouhai District, covering 19 townships / subdistricts, with a clustering period from January 2015 to December 2019. The secondary-type clustering was centered on Xiaocun Town in Taishun County, covering 42 townships / subdistricts, with a clustering period from April 2018 to June 2019. Conclusions The incidence of scarlet fever in Wenzhou City from 2015 to 2024 showed an overall declining trend, with a high incidence among school-aged children and distinct spatial-temporal clustering. Peaks in cases occurred from April to June and from November to January of the following year. Focused prevention and control efforts are recommended in Lucheng District, Ouhai District, and Taishun County.
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Received: 21 July 2025
Revised: 17 November 2025
Published: 25 December 2025
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