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| Probability of premature death for four non-communicable diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District from 2005 to 2020 |
| HE Baohua, ZHOU Xiaohong, XI Shengjun, YANG Qing
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| Department of Chronic Non-communiciable Diseases Control and Prevention, Gongshu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310022, China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the mortality and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases and their trends among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020, so as to provide insights into the development of the chronic disease control strategy. Methods The data regarding the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020 were captured from the Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System, and the crude mortality, standardized mortality by the sixth population census data in Zhejiang Province in 2010 and probability of premature death for these four chronic diseases were estimated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed in Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020 using average annual percent change (AAPC). Results A total of 6 436 deaths occurred due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020. The crude and standardized mortality rates were 183.33/105 and 152.88/105, which both appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2005 to 2020 (AAPC=-1.099% and -2.926%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death reduced from 10.40% in 2005 to 6.78% in 2020, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-2.827%, P<0.05). The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors, diabetes and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2005 to 2020 (AAPC=-2.681%, -6.571% and -2.286%, all P<0.05), while no significant changing trend was seen in the probability of premature death due to chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-4.263%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death for these four chronic diseases reduced from 13.55% in 2005 to 9.36% in 2020 among male residents (AAPC=-2.150%, P<0.05), and reduced from 7.18% in 2005 to 4.22% in 2020 among female residents (AAPC=-4.149%, P<0.05). Conclusions The mortality and probability of premature death due to chronic diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020, and there was a significant decline in the probability of premature death for malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes.
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Received: 15 August 2022
Revised: 25 September 2022
Published: 16 November 2022
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