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| Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019 |
| YAO Yaping1, YAN Rui2, TAO Mingyong3, DENG Xuan2, HE Hanqing2, LÜ Huakun2
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1. Department of Science Research and Information Management, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China;
2. Department of Immunization Program, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China;
3. Medical College of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315211, China |
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Abstract Objective To identify spatio-temporal distribution patterns of mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019, so as to provide insights into precise control of mumps. Methods The epidemiological data pertaining to mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The time- and region-specific incidence of mumps was descriptively analyzed, and the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of mumps incidence were identified using global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses and spatio-temporal scan analysis. Results A total of 167 196 cases of mumps were reported in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019, and the incidence of mumps reduced from 56.08/105 in 2008 to 11.35/105 in 2019, with a reduction of 79.76%. There was no remarkable mumps seasonality since 2017; however, spatial autocorrelation was seen in mumps incidence in 2008, 2011 and 2012, respectively ( Moran's I coefficient=0.16, 0.18, 0.16; all P<0.05 ). Spatio-temporal scan analysis identified five spatio-temporal clusters of mumps incidence in 2008, 2011 and 2012, and the most likely spatio-temporal cluster was mainly concentrated in Cangnan County of Wenzhou City, covering 17 counties clustered in the time frame from 15 January 2008 to 28 February 2009, while the other four clusters were concentrated in Pinghu City of Jiaxing City, Kaihua County of Quzhou City, Fuyang District of Hangzhou City and Zhuji City of Shaoxing City, clustered in the time frame from 15 January 2008 to 30 June 2012. Conclusion The incidence of mumps appeared a tendency towards a reduction in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019, and rebounded in some regions. No remarkable mumps seasonality was seen since 2017. The spatio-temporal clusters of mumps incidence were concentrated in Wenzhou and Jiaxing cities of Zhejiang Province in 2008, 2011 and 2012; however, no spatial cluster was identified since 2012.
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Received: 13 August 2021
Revised: 13 October 2021
Published: 12 January 2022
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