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| Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of influenza in Shaoxing City from 2015 to 2024 |
| MA Shanshan, ZHAO Qifeng, MA Yan, WANG Jiling, CHEN Haimiao, FANG Yirong
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| Shaoxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312000, China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of influenza in Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2024, so as to provide the basis for formulating influenza prevention and control strategies. Methods Influenza case data in Shaoxing City from 2015 to 2024 were collected through the Infectious Disease Surveillance Reporting System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods analyses were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza. Spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal scanning were used to analyze the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of influenza. Results A total of 328 759 influenza cases were reported in Shaoxing City from 2015 to 2024, with an average annual reported incidence of 639.90/105, which showed an upward trend (AAPC=68.95%, P<0.05). The peak incidence period was from December to February of the following year, with 193 051 cases reported, accounting for 58.72%. There were 165 408 male cases and 163 351 female cases, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.01∶1. Children and adolescents aged 0-<15 years constituted the high-incidence population, while students represented the predominant occupational category, comprising 113 589 cases (34.55%). Keqiao District, Shengzhou City, and Yuecheng District had the top three average annual reported incidence of influenza, at 995.64/105, 734.66/105, and 687.44/105, respectively. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that, there were 155 high-high aggregation areas in Shaoxing City from 2015 to 2024, which gradually expanded from the local aggregation in the central part of Shengzhou City to Keqiao District and then spread to Yuecheng District. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that, from November 2023 to February 2024, the strongest spatio-temporal clustering of influenza centered on Keqiao Street in Keqiao District, covering 11 towns (streets) in Yuecheng District and Keqiao District. From 2015 to 2018, the primary-type clustering of influenza was mainly concentrated in Xinchang County and Shengzhou City. After 2019, they gradually shifted to Yuecheng District and Keqiao District, with the main clustering period being from November to February of the following year. Conclusions The incidence of influenza in Shaoxing City from 2015 to 2024 showed an upward trend, with obvious spatio-temporal clustering. The clustering area expanded from Shengzhou City in the central region to Keqiao District and Yuecheng District in the northern region, mainly clustering from November to February of the following year.
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Received: 22 May 2025
Revised: 18 August 2025
Published: 16 September 2025
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