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| Index system of public health risk assessment for air pollution emergency based on Delphi method |
| REN Yanjun, XU Hong, JIN Tao, LÜ Ye, LI Chaokang, TAN Ruoyun
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| Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hangzhou Institute of Public Health Supervision), Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310021, China |
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Abstract Objective To construct an index system of public health risk assessment for air pollution emergency, so as to provide a tool of evaluating the public health risks of air pollution emergency. Methods Index system of public health risk assessment for air pollution emergency was established through literature review and group discussions. The index system was determined through two rounds of Delphi expert consultations involving specialists in environmental health, toxicology, epidemiology, health emergency response, and atmospheric monitoring. The effectiveness of the consultation was evaluated by positive coefficient, authority coefficient and coordination coefficient. The weights of index were determined using a combination weighting method of the expert scoring method and the entropy weight method. Results Fifteen experts participated in the consultation, including 11 males and 4 females. There were 8 experts with a doctor degree, 6 experts with a master degree, 1 experts with a bachelor degree. A total of 11 experts with senior professional titles, and 4 experts with associate senior professional titles. The average work experience was (23.73±10.48) years. The expert positive coefficients for the two rounds of consultations were 83.33% and 100%, respectively. The expert authority coefficients were 0.794 and 0.811, respectively. The coefficients of variation for the importance, feasibility, and sensitivity scores of each index in the two rounds of comsultations were 0.097 to 0.352, 0.078 to 0.478, 0.115 to 0.388, and 0.049 to 0.133, 0.052 to 0.153, 0.049 to 0.178, respectively. The Kendall's coefficients of concordance were 0.237 and 0.440 (both with P<0.05) for the two rounds of consultations. The constructed assessment index system included "likelihood" "hazard" "vulnerability" "controllability" with comprehensive weights of 0.206 7, 0.059 6, 0.378 1, and 0.355 5, respectively. Among the 13 second indicators, "monitoring capability" had the highest comprehensive weight of 0.192 6. Among the 40 tertiary indicators, "real-time monitoring of atmospheric pollutants" "retrospective evaluation of early forecasting results" "types, quantities, and combined effects of atmospheric pollutants" "exposure modes of the population to atmospheric pollutants" had relatively high comprehensive weights of 0.089 5, 0.043 1, 0.041 1 and 0.040 3, respectively. Conclusion The constructed index system of public health risk assessment for air pollution emergency can be applied to the public health risk assessment for air pollution emergencies.
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Received: 18 March 2025
Revised: 22 May 2025
Published: 24 June 2025
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