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| Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis in Huangpu District from 2009 to 2023 |
| LING Hong1, WANG Na2, SONG Qin1, XU Hao1
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1. Huangpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Huangpu District Institute of Public Health Supervision), Shanghai 200023, China;
2. School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Huangpu District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023, so as to provide the evidence for formulating targeted pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. Methods Data of registered pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Huangpu District from 2009 to 2023, including gender, age, occupation, and pathogenetic test results, were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The registered incidence was calculated, and the trend was analyzed using the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Spatial distribution pattern was analyzed using kernel density estimation and the average nearest neighbor methods. The temporal-spatial clustering characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis were identified using the spatio-temporal scan analysis. Results A total of 2 726 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were registered in Huangpu District from 2009 to 2023. The registered incidence decreased from 31.20/105 in 2009 to 15.06/105 in 2023 (AAPC=-6.156%, P<0.05). A sharp declining trend was particularly observed from 2017 to 2023 (APC=-11.355%, P<0.05). Among them, 1 239 were pathogen-positive, and the pathogen positivity rate increased from 40.80% in 2009 to 71.05% in 2023 (P<0.05). There were 1 906 male cases and 820 female cases, with a male-to-female ratio of 2.32∶1. There were 798 cases aged 45-<60 years and 981 retirees, accounting for 29.27% and 35.99%, respectively. Temporal-spatial clustering analysis revealed spatial clustering areas during both 2009-2016 and 2017-2023 (both P<0.05). The clustering area for 2009-2016 was located in the central-eastern part of Huangpu District, with the clustering time in 2012. The clustering area for 2017-2023 was in the southwestern part, with the clustering time in 2017. Conclusions The registered incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Huangpu District showed a downward trend from 2009 to 2023. The spatial clustering areas were identified in the central-eastern part in Huangpu District in 2012 and the southwestern part in 2017.
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Received: 21 April 2025
Revised: 15 August 2025
Published: 16 September 2025
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