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| Comparison of the effect of obesity indicators in predicting cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus |
| LU Jie, ZHANG Ke, WU Ya, WANG Yue, ZHANG Yue, LU Ye, WU Zhouli, REN Zhihua, HUANG Yiwen
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| Qingpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Qingpu District Institute of Public Health Supervision), Shanghai 201799, China |
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Abstract Objective To explore the effect of different obesity indicators in predicting cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), so as to provide the evidence for the early identification of CVD risk among T2DM patients. Methods The patients with T2DM under community management in Qingpu District, Shanghai Municipality were selected as the study subjects in January 2025. Basic information such as gender, age, and blood glucose control status were collected through the Shanghai Chronic Disease Information Management System, while history of CVD were obtained from residents' electronic health records and the Shanghai Disease Control Information Platform. Obesity was assessed using body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), BMI combined with WC, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and triglyceride (TG) combined with WC indicators. The association between obesity and CVD was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression models. The predictive effect of each obesity indicators for CVD was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results A total of 4 367 patients with T2DM were included, including 2 121 males (48.57%) and 2 246 females (51.43%). The average age was (68.71±8.05) years. The prevalence of CVD was 44.49%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for age, education level, history of hypertension, duration of T2DM, use of glucose-lowering medications, renal function, and blood glucose control status, obese T2DM patients had a 389.4% increased risk of CVD compared to those with normal BMI; centrally obese T2DM patients had a 100.4% increased risk compared to those with normal WC; T2DM patients with isolated general obesity and compound obesity had 161.0% and 241.1% increased risks of CVD, respectively, compared to those with normal BMI and WC; centrally obese T2DM patients had a 100.4% increased risk compared to those with normal WHtR; T2DM patients with normal TG-high WC and high TG-high WC phenotypes had 83.1% and 68.8% increased risks of CVD, respectively, compared to those with normal TG and normal WC (all P<0.05). BMI had the highest AUC, at 0.714, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.675 and 0.642, respectively. This was followed by BMI combined with WC, which had an AUC of 0.707, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.635 and 0.679, respectively. Conclusions Obesity defined by BMI, WC, BMI combined with WC, WHtR, and TG combined with WC increases the risk of CVD among patients with T2DM. BMI and BMI combined with WC have better predictive effect in predicting CVD risk among patients with T2DM, and can be used as the primary obesity indicators for CVD risk screening.
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Received: 15 May 2025
Revised: 12 August 2025
Published: 16 September 2025
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