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| Probability of premature death due to major chronic diseases and its impact on life expectancy in Baoshan District from 2005 to 2021 |
| LI Pengbin, LIU Shiyou, MENG Yang, WANG Jinchen, CAI Weihua, MAO Jianying
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| Second Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 201901, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the changing trend of premature death of four major chronic diseases and evaluate the impact on life expectancy in Baoshan District, Shanghai Municipality from 2005 to 2021, so as to provide insights into promoting the prevention and control of chronic diseases. Methods Death data of permanent residents in Baoshan District from 2005 to 2021 were collected from the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases, and life expectancy among residents were calculated using life table method. The trends of the probabilities of premature death of four major chronic diseases were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC). The impact on life expectancy was assessed using Arriaga decomposition method. Results From 2005 to 2021, the probability of premature death due to four major chronic diseases in Baoshan District showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.010%, P<0.05). The decline was more pronounced among females compared to males (AAPC=-2.551% vs. -0.214%, both P<0.05). The life expectancy increased from 80.31 years in 2005 to 84.12 years in 2021, with an increase of 3.40 years in males and 4.32 years in females. The decrease in the probability of premature death due to malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-1.518%, -1.284% and -4.666%, all P<0.05) increased the life expectancy of the population by 0.46, 0.11 and 0.02 years, contributing 12.18%, 2.90% and 0.63%, respectively. The changes in the probability of premature death due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in males decreased the life expectancy by 0.12 years, with the negative contribution coming from the 30-39 and 45-59 year-old groups. The increase in the probability of premature death due to diabetes (AAPC=3.731%, P<0.05) decreased life expectancy of the population by 0.11 years, with a contribution of -2.90%. The change in the probability of premature death due to diabetes in females increased the life expectancy by 0.04 years, with a positive contribution coming from the 65-69 year-old group; while the change in the probability of premature death due to diabetes in males reduced the life expectancy by 0.20 years, with the negative contributions coming from all age groups. Conclusions The probability of premature death due to major chronic diseases in Baoshan District declined from 2005 to 2021 and the life expectancy increased. Attention should be paid to the impacts of premature death due to diabetes and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases on life expectancy in males.
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Received: 25 March 2024
Revised: 17 June 2024
Published: 22 August 2024
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