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| Prognostic prediction models for patients with comorbidity of chronic diseases: a scoping review |
| JIA Ming1, ZHAO Hua1, PENG Juyi1,2, LIU Xingyu1, LIU Yudan1, HOU Jianing1, YANG Jiale1
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1. School of Nursing, Shanxi University of Chinese Medicine, Jinzhong, Shanxi 030619, China;
2. Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030032, China |
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Abstract Objective To conduct a scoping review on prognostic prediction models for patients with comorbidity of chronic diseases, and understand modeling methods, predictive factors and predictive effect of the models, so as to provide the reference for prognostic evaluation on patients with comorbidity of chronic diseases. Methods Literature on prognostic prediction models for patients with comorbidity of chronic diseases was collected through SinoMed, CNKI, Wanfang Data, VIP, PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science published from the time of their establishment to November 1, 2023. The quality of literature was assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST), then modeling methods, predictive factors and predictive effects were reviewed. Results Totally 2 130 publications were retrieved, and nine publications were finally enrolled, with an overall high risk of bias. Thirteen models were involved, with three established using machine learning methods and ten established using logistic regression. The prediction results of four models were death, with main predictive factors being age, gender, body mass index (BMI), Barthel index and pressure ulcers; the prediction results of nine models were rehospitalization, with main predictive factors being age, BMI, hospitalization frequency, duration of hospital stay and hospitalization costs. Eleven models reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), ranging from 0.663 to 0.991 6; two models reported the C-index, ranging from 0.64 to 0.70. Eight models performed internal validation, one model performed external validation, and four models did not reported verification methods. Conclusions The prognostic prediction models for patients with comorbidity of chronic diseases are established by logistic regression and machine learning methods with common nursing evaluation indicators, and perform well. Laboratory indicators should be considered to add in the models to further improve the predictive effects.
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Received: 22 January 2024
Revised: 21 March 2024
Published: 20 June 2024
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