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预防医学  2018, Vol. 30 Issue (2): 134-138    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2018.02.007
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奉化区主要慢性非传染性疾病早死概率分析
王海明, 王春丽, 冯伟
宁波市奉化区疾病预防控制中心,浙江 宁波 315500
Premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases in Fenghua District
WANG Hai-ming, WANG Chun-li, FENG Wei
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Fenghua District ,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315500,China
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摘要 目的 了解宁波市奉化区2010—2015年四类主要慢性非传染性疾病(慢性病)早死概率及趋势,为实现“健康中国2030”重大慢性病控制目标提供数据支持。方法 从浙江省慢性病监测信息管理系统导出2010—2015年宁波市奉化区户籍居民死亡个案数据,应用寿命表法计算早死概率,分析四类慢性病早死概率的趋势以及性别和地区差异,并以“健康中国2030”重大慢性病早死概率目标评价四类慢性病早死概率下降空间。结果 心脑血管疾病(2.60%~3.82%)和恶性肿瘤(7.03%~9.20%)的早死概率高于慢性呼吸系统疾病(0.18%~0.48%)和糖尿病(0.17%~0.44%),早死概率男性(13.71%~16.57%)高于女性(5.92%~9.41%),早死概率最高的前三位乡镇/街道为大堰镇(14.62%)、松岙镇(12.83%)和西坞街道(12.66%)。2010—2015年宁波市奉化区四类慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势(P<0.05),由12.05%下降到10.21%;四类慢性病年均下降速度为3.26%,女性年均下降速度为6.56%,快于男性的1.32%。以2015年为基准计算,男性四类慢性病早死概率距离2030年控制目标(9.60%)尚有4.11%的下降空间,女性距离2030年控制目标(4.58%)尚有1.96%的下降空间。结论 宁波市奉化区四类慢性病早死概率呈逐年下降趋势,男性早死概率高于女性,且下降速度较慢,不同乡镇/街道居民四类慢性病早死概率及其变化速度存在较大差异。
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王海明
王春丽
冯伟
关键词 慢性非传染性疾病早死概率糖尿病恶性肿瘤心脑血管疾病慢性呼吸系统疾病    
AbstractObjective To analyze the probability of premature mortality and temporal trend caused by four main non-communicable diseases(NCDs)in Fenghua District of Ningbo City from 2010 to 2015,and to provide data support for achieving Health China 2030 reduction target. Methods The data of deaths were from chronic disease surveillance information management system in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2015. According to the life-table method of calculating premature mortality probability,the premature mortality of four main NCDs by different gender,years and regions was analyzed and compared. Taking “Health China 2030” goal of reduction 30% as the standard for the probability of premature mortality caused by major NCDs to evaluate the descent space of premature mortality. Results The probability of premature mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and cancer was higher than that of chronic respiratory disease and diabetes,and the probability of premature mortality in men was higher than that in women. The top three villages and towns in terms of probability of prematuremortality caused by four main NCDs were Dayan town,Songao town and Xiwu Street in turn. From 2010 to 2015,the probabilities of premature mortality in four main NCDs were all declined consistently in Fenghua District of Ningbo City(P<0.05),and the total of four main NCDs decreased from 12.05% to 10.21%. The probability of premature mortality of four main NCDs declined by 3.26% a year on average with higher decreasing in women(6.56%)than that in men(1.32%). Compared with 2015 baseline,the premature mortality of four NCDs in men would decrease by 4.11% to reach 2030 goal(9.60%),and the probability of premature mortality four main NCDs in women would decrease by 1.96% to reach the 2030 goal(4.58%). Conclusion s The probabilities of premature mortality in four main NCDs were all declined consistently in Fenghua District of Ningbo City. Compared with women,the men had higher probabilities and declined slower,and there were significant different in probabilities of premature mortality and their change speed among villages and towns.
Key wordsNon-communicable diseases    Premature mortality    Health China 2030
收稿日期: 2017-09-01      修回日期: 2017-10-18      出版日期: 2018-02-10
中图分类号:  R181.3  
通信作者: 王海明,E-mail:1322066928@qq.com   
作者简介: 王海明,硕士,主任医师,主要从事疾病预防与控制工作
引用本文:   
王海明, 王春丽, 冯伟. 奉化区主要慢性非传染性疾病早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2018, 30(2): 134-138.
WANG Hai-ming, WANG Chun-li, FENG Wei. Premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases in Fenghua District. Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(2): 134-138.
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