Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Yulin City from 2007 to 2024
CAI Rongrong1, ZHONG Haoyun2, ZHANG Qiuge1, YANG Yuanyuan1, GAO Xiangqi1, CHENG Qingxue1
1. Yulin Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Yulin Institute of Public Health Supervision), Yulin, Shaanxi 719000, China; 2. Medical School of Yan'an University, Yan'an, Shaanxi 716000, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province from 2007 to 2024, so as to provide the evidence for optimizing regional PTB prevention and control strategies. Methods Registration data of PTB cases in Yulin City from 2007 to 2024 were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) were used to analyze the trends in PTB registration rates. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, spatial and population distribution characteristics. Spatio-temporal scan analysis was used to analyze the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics. Results A total of 35 874 PTB cases were registered in Yulin City from 2007 to 2024. The registered incidence decreased from 80.41/105 in 2007 to 38.53/105 in 2024 (AAPC=-3.916%, P<0.05). Downward trends were observed from 2007 to 2016 and from 2019 to 2022 (APC=-4.440%, -19.361%, both P<0.05). March used to be the peak of disease incidence, with a seasonal index of 1.78, while February used to be the trough, with a seasonal index of -1.38. The average annual registered incidence rates were relatively high in Zhouxian County, Wubu County, and Suide County, at 89.02/105, 82.52/105 and 79.61/105, respectively. There were 21 672 registered PTB cases among males, accounting for 60.41%, and 14 202 cases among females, accounting for 39.59%. The higher registered cases were observed in groups aged 15 to <25 years and ≥65 years, with 9 400 and 7 950 cases, accounting for 26.20% and 22.16%, respectively. The proportion of population aged ≥65 years increased from 16.97% in 2007 to 43.24% in 2024, with an increase of 154.80%. Farmers were the predominant occupation, with 24 477 cases, accounting for 68.23%. Spatio-temporal scan analysis showed that the primary clusters consistently included Qingjian County, Suide County, Zizhou County, and Wubu County from 2007 to 2015, 2016 to 2019, 2020 to 2022 and 2023 to 2024. Mizhi County was incorporated into the clusters from 2016 to 2019 and 2020 to 2022, while Jiaxian County was further added from 2023 to 2024. The specific cluster periods were from January 2007 to June 2011, November 2017 to August 2019, March 2020 to July 2021, and February 2023 to July 2024, respectively. Conclusions From 2007 to 2024, the registered incidence of PTB in Yulin City showed an overall declining trend. March marked the peak of disease onset. Males, the elderly aged ≥65 years and farmers were the high-incidence population. Persistent spatio-temporal clustering was observed in the southern regions, including Qingjian County, Suide County, Zizhou County, Wubu County, and Mizhi County.
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