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| An analysis on the epidemic characteristics and time trends of drowning- induced deaths among the Ningbo residents under 20 years,2002-2015 |
| ZHU Yin-chao, WANG Yong, LI Hui, CHEN Jie-ping
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| The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Ningbo City,Ningbo,Zhejiang,315010,China |
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Abstract Objective To learn the epidemic characteristics and time trends of drowning-induced mortality among the Ningbo residents aged less than 20 years and to provide the scientific evidence for developing drowning prevention strategies. Methods Data were obtained from the death registry system in Ningbo City during 2002-2015 for descriptive analysis,and a linear regression model on an absolute scale or a log scale of the relevant indexes was mainly used to identify the time trends. Results There were all 982 deaths owning to drowning among the Ningbo residents aged under 20 years,with the average crude mortality of 6.23/100 000. And the average crude drowning-induced mortality was 8.74/100 000,3.59/100 000, 3.85/100 000 and 7.64/100 000 for the male,female,urban and rural respectively. The standardized mortality rate for drowning showed a significant decreasing trend with the Annual Percent Change（APC）of -9.71%（P<0.001）. APC for the male was -10.03%（P<0.001）,higher than -9.64% for the female（P=0.001）. Meanwhile,APC for the urban was -14.51%（P<0.001）,also higher than -8.71% for the rural（P<0.001）. The most deaths occurred in the nature water body （90.04%）. Conclusion Though the drowning-induced mortality among the Ningbo residents aged less than 20 years revealed a significance of the decreasing trends,and drowning still emerged as a serious public health issue. Gender parity and regional disparities should take into account when developing some intervention strategies.
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Received: 09 November 2016
Revised: 27 December 2016
Published: 17 October 2017
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