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| A prediction model for hypertension risk among residents aged 18 to 79 years |
| GONG Haiying, XUE Fengyu, LIU Xiaofen, XING Ruiting, MIAO Yuyang, ZHAO Yao
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| Fangshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102488, China |
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Abstract Objective To construct a hypertension risk prediction model for residents aged 18-79 years, so as to provide an assessment tool for early screening and prevention of hypertension in high-risk groups. Methods The permanent residents aged 18-79 years from 6 townships (streets) in Fangshan District of Beijing Municipality were selected as the study subjects using a multi-stage stratified random sampling method from March to June 2023. Demographic information, lifestyle, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and blood lipid were collected through questionnaire survey, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Subjects were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a 7∶3 ratio. The logistic regression model was used to screen the risk factors of hypertension, and a hypertension risk prediction nomogram was constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to verify the discrimination, fit, and clinical application value of the model. Results A total of 4 438 subjects were included, including 2 365 males (53.29%) and 2 073 females (46.71%), with a mean age of (44.99±14.90) years. The prevalence of hypertension was 35.29% (1 566 cases), and the standardized prevalence was 24.74%. The logistic regression model screened out 9 influencing factors of hypertension. The nomogram was established as ln[p/ (1-p)]= -2.873 + 0.935×40-<50 years + 1.463×50-<60 years + 1.908×60-<70 years + 2.346×70-79 years + 0.298×male-0.675×college degree or above + 0.384×smoking + 0.227×drinking + 0.572×overweight + 1.449×obesity + 0.557×heart rate ≥80 beats/min + 0.428×diabetes + 0.484×dyslipidemia. The area under the ROC curve of the validation set was 0.821 (95%CI: 0.798-0.843), and the calibration curve results showed that the calibration curve fitted the actual curve well. Decision curve analysis showed that the threshold probability was in the range of 0.10 to 0.70, and the model had good predictive value and clinical application value. Conclusion The nomogram based on age, gender, educational level, smoking, drinking, body mass index, heart rate, diabetes, and dyslipidemia can be used to predict the risk of hypertension among residents aged 18-79 years.
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Received: 25 April 2025
Revised: 13 August 2025
Published: 23 October 2025
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