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| Trend in incidence of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District from 2010 to 2024 |
| LI Yurong, WANG Dongfei, GAO Yuanyuan, JIANG Yuanyuan, LIN Junying, XIAO Duanduan
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| Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Xiaoshan District Institute of Public Health Supervision), Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311203, China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the incidence trend of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2010 to 2024, and predict the incidence of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving the prevention and control strategies of colorectal cancer. Methods Colorectal cancer incidence data from 2010 to 2024 in Xiaoshan District were collected through the Hangzhou Municipal Chronic Disease Monitoring Management System. The crude incidence of colorectal cancer was calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010 (Chinese standardized rate) and the Segi's world standard population (world standardized rate). The trend of colorectal cancer incidence from 2010 to 2024 was analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). An exponential smoothing state space model with trigonometric seasonality, box-cox transformation, ARMA errors, trend and seasonal components (TBATS) was established to forecast the crude incidence of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027. Results There were 10 726 new cases of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District from 2010 to 2024. The crude incidence, Chinese standardized rate, and world standardized rate of colorectal cancer were 59.25/105, 38.62/105 and 29.50/105, respectively. The crude incidence, Chinese standardized rate, and world standardized rate of colorectal cancer in males were 70.56/105, 44.44/105 and 35.58/105, respectively, while those in females were 48.37/105, 32.69/105 and 23.70/105, respectively. The Chinese standardized rate of colorectal cancer was significantly higher in males than in females (P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in males, females and the whole population showed upward trends from 2010 to 2024 (AAPC=4.916%, 3.795% and 4.442%, all P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the groups of 0-<35, 35-<50, 50-<75 and ≥75 years were 1.75/105, 19.86/105, 112.28/105 and 272.99/105, respectively, showing an increasing trend with age (P<0.05). From 2010 to 2024, the crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the ≥75 years group showed an increasing trend (AAPC=4.470%, P<0.05), while no significant trend was observed in other age groups (all P>0.05). TBATS model demonstrated good fitting (predictive) performance, indicating a year-by-year increase in the crude incidence of colorectal cancer across the whole population from 2025 to 2027, with an estimated rate reaching 70.45/105 in 2027. Conclusions The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in Xiaoshan District showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2024, and it is predicted to continue to increase from 2025 to 2027. Males and the elderly are the key populations for colorectal cancer prevention and control.
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Received: 03 July 2025
Revised: 10 August 2025
Published: 16 September 2025
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