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| Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal clustering analysis of scarlet fever in Jinhua City from 2005 to 2023 |
| LI Ke, PANG Zhifeng, WU Xiaohong, TANG Huiling
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| Jinhua Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jinhua Institute of Public Health Supervision),Jinhua, Zhejiang 321002, China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of scarlet fever in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2023, so as to provide a reference for improving the prevention and control strategy of scarlet fever. Methods The data of scarlet fever cases in Jinhua City from 2005 to 2023 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to analyze the trend of scarlet fever incidence from 2005 to 2023. The spatial-temporal clustering of scarlet fever was identified using spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning analysis. Results A total of 1 494 scarlet fever cases were reported in Jinhua City from 2005 to 2023, and the average annual reported incidence rate was 1.41/105, with no significant change trend (AAPC=1.706%, P>0.05). There were two incidence peaks, from April to June and from November to January of the next year. There were 937 males and 557 females, with a male to female ratio of 1.68∶1. The age was mainly <10 years (1 391 cases, 93.11%), of which 3-<7 years was the high incidence age group (936 cases, 62.65%). There were 1 466 cases of preschool children, students, and scattered children, accounting for 98.13%. The average annual reported incidence of scarlet fever in Dongyang City, Pujiang County, and Yongkang City was 4.58/105, 3.04/105, and 1.99/105, respectively. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of scarlet fever in Jinhua City from 2005 to 2023 (Moran's I=0.579, P<0.05), and the high-high clustering areas were mainly distributed in Dongyang City and Pujiang County. The spatial-temporal scanning analysis showed that there were 8 spatial-temporal clustering areas of scarlet fever in Jinhua City from 2005 to 2023. The class Ⅰ clustering area was 9 towns in Dongyang City, and the clustering period was from August 2013 to December 2022. There were 7 class Ⅱ clusters, covering some streets in Pujiang County, Dongyang City, Yongkang City, Yiwu City, and Pan'an County. Conclusions From 2005 to 2023, the incidence of scarlet fever in Jinhua City was relatively low, and children aged 3-<7 years had a high incidence, and there was a spatiotemporal clustering. The peak incidence was from April to June and from November to January of the next year. Dongyang City, Pujiang County, and Yongkang City had high incidence areas.
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Received: 05 March 2025
Revised: 31 May 2025
Published: 23 July 2025
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