|
|
|
| Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China from 1992 to 2021 |
| SHEN Min, YU Zhihui, ZHU Aitao
|
| The Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University, Qidong People's Hospital, Qidong Liver Cancer Institute, Qidong, Jiangsu 226200, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Objective To investigate the trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence and mortality in China from 1992 to 2021 with age, period and birth cohort, so as to provide insights into the prevention and control of COPD. Methods The crude incidence rates, crude mortality rates, standardized incidence rates and standardized mortality rates of COPD in China from 1992 to 2021 were collected through the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database. The impacts of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of COPD were analyzed using an age-period-cohort model. Results The standardized incidence rates of COPD in China ranged from 271.24/105 in 1992 to 215.62/105 in 2021, and the standardized mortality rates ranged from 226.08/105 in 1992 to 73.23/105 in 2021, both showing downward trends. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the incidence and mortality rates of COPD increased with age. The incidence rates rose more rapidly after the age of 35 years, from 138.45/105 in the age group of 35-<40 years to 2 538.61/105 in the age group of 85-<90 years. The mortality rates rose more rapidly after the age of 60 years, from 73.73/105 in the age group of 60-<65 years to 1 053.88/105 in the age group of 85-<90 years. The incidence and mortality risks of COPD declined with time. Compared with the period of 2002-2006, the incidence (RR=0.866, 95%CI: 0.845-0.888) and mortality risks (RR=0.418, 95%CI: 0.394-0.445) of COPD were the lowest in 2017-2021. The incidence and mortality risks of COPD declined with the year of birth. Compared with the 1950-1954 birth cohort, the incidence (RR=0.530, 95%CI: 0.404-0.694) and mortality risks (RR=0.042, 95%CI: 0.007-0.276) of COPD were the lowest in the 2002-2006 birth cohort. Conclusion The incidence and mortality rates of COPD in China from 1992 to 2021 increased with age, but decreased with time and the year of birth.
|
|
Received: 11 October 2024
Revised: 02 December 2024
Published: 13 February 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 陈亚红. 2022年GOLD慢性阻塞性肺疾病诊断、治疗、管理及预防全球策略更新要点解读[J].中国全科医学,2022,25(11):1294-1304.
CHEN Y H.Interpretation of global strategy for the diagnosis,treatment,management and prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 2022 report[J].Chin Gen Pract,2022,25(11):1294-1304.(in Chinese)
[2] LINDBERG A,LINDBERG L,SAWALHA S,et al.Large underreporting of COPD as cause of death-results from a population-based cohort study[J/OL].Respir Med,2021,186[2024-12-02].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2021.106518.
[3] 王前友,赵博轩,王文安.1990—2019年中国缺血性脑卒中发病和死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析[J].中华全科医学,2024,22(6):1059-1063.
WANG Q Y,ZHAO B X,WANG W A.Analysis of trend and age-period-cohort model on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China[J].Chin J Gen Pract,2024,22(6):1059-1063.(in Chinese)
[4] 李傅冬,何凡,何寒清,等.2004—2020年浙江省10岁以下儿童乙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄-时期-队列分析[J].预防医学,2024,36(9):737-740.
LI F D,HE F,HE H Q,et al.Age-period-cohort analysis of the incidence of hepatitis B among children aged under 10 years in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2020[J].China Prev Med J,2024,36(9):737-740.(in Chinese)
[5] GBD 2021 Anaemia Collaborators.Prevalence,years lived with disability,and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause,1990-2021:findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021BD 2021 Anaemia Collaborators.Prevalence,years lived with disability,and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause,1990-2021:findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021[J].Lancet Haematol,2023,10(9):713-734.
[6] CHEN Y Y,KANG L,LIU X H,et al.Update on aging statistics and geriatrics development in China[J].J Am Geriatr Soc,2019,67(1):187-188.
[7] EASTER M,BOLLENBECKER S,BARNES J W,et al.Targeting aging pathways in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease[J/OL].Int J Mol Sci,2020,21(18)[2024-12-02].https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms21186924.
[8] 朱瑶,赵军,颜玮,等.2014—2021年江西省呼吸系统疾病死亡率变化趋势分析[J].疾病监测,2022,37(7):891-894.
ZHU Y,ZHAO J,YAN W,et al.Trend of mortality rate of respiratory disease in Jiangxi,2014-2021[J].Dis Surveill,2022,37(7):891-894.(in Chinese)
[9] 苟美玲,骆泽宇,张菊英,等.1990—2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率的长期变化趋势和预测分析[J].现代预防医学,2023,50(14):2514-2518.
GOU M L,LUO Z Y,ZHANG J Y,et al.Long term trend and prediction of mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China,1990-2019[J].Mod Prev Med,2023,50(14):2514-2518.(in Chinese)
[10] GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infections Collaborators.Estimates of the global,regional,and national morbidity,mortality,and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries,1990-2016:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016BD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infections Collaborators.Estimates of the global,regional,and national morbidity,mortality,and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries,1990-2016:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016[J].Lancet Infect Dis,2018,18(11):1191-1210.
[11] GAO C,XU J,LIU Y,et al.Nutrition policy and Healthy China 2030 building[J].Eur J Clin Nutr,2021,75(2):238-246.
[12] ZHU B F,WANG Y F,MING J,et al.Disease burden of COPD in China:a systematic review[J].Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis,2018,13:1353-1364.
[13] 刘应焱,李胜,郝莲,等.2005—2019年中国居民肺炎死亡趋势分析——基于年龄-时期-队列模型[J].卫生经济研究,2021,38(10):64-70.
LIU Y Y,LI S,HAO L,et al.Analysis on the death trend of pneumonia among Chinese residents from 2005 to 2019:based on age-period-cohort model[J].Health Econo Res,2021,38(10):64-70.(in Chinese)
[14] 李昀东,凌巍,龚霓.年龄—时期—队列视角下的中国居民死亡风险与死亡模式变迁[J].中国卫生事业管理,2022,39(7):545-551.
LI Y D,LING W,GONG N.An age-period-cohort analysis on the death risk and death mode transition of Chinese residents[J].Chin Health Serv Manag,2022,39(7):545-551.(in Chinese)
[15] 郑湘毅,李秀萍,陈炳锋,等.不同运动频次高强度下肢踏车锻炼对中重度COPD病人肺康复的疗效观察[J].实用老年医学,2020,34(5):443-446.
ZHENG X Y,LI X P,CHEN B F,et al.Effects of high-intensity lower limb treadmill exercise with different exercise frequency on pulmonary rehabilitation in patients with moderate to severe COPD[J].Pract Geriatr,2020,34(5):443-446.(in Chinese)
[16] 张颖颖,周新.慢性阻塞性肺疾病的认识研究史[J].慢性病学杂志,2022,23(3):321-323.
ZHANG Y Y,ZHOU X.Cognitive research history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease[J].Chron Pathematol J,2022,23(3):321-323.(in Chinese) |
|
|
|
