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| Trends in age-, period- and cohort-specific incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022 |
| LIU Rui, LIN Maowen, JIANG Hong, LI Shuchao, ZHANG Fan, SUN Chun
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| Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou, Hubei 434000, China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the trend in incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province from 2008 to 2022, and to examine the age-period-cohort effect, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of hepatitis C prevention strategies. Methods Demographic data and incidence data of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the trend in incidence of hepatitis C was analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC). The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of hepatitis C were examined with an age-period-cohort model. Results The average annual incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 and 2022 was 20.26/105, with a male incidence of 20.04/105 and a female incidence of 20.47/105. The incidence of hepatitis C initially rose and then fell (AAPC=5.375%, P<0.05), with a rising trend from 2008 to 2018 (APC=13.370%, P<0.05) and a decreasing trend from 2018 to 2022 (APC=-12.231%, P<0.05). The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and the 80-84 age group had the highest risk (RR=11.420, 95%CI: 7.631-17.090) in relative to the 45-49 age group. The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time, and an increased risk of hepatitis C was seen from 2013 to 2017 (RR=1.393, 95%CI: 1.272-1.525) and a decreased risk was seen from 2018 to 2022 (RR=1.237, 95%CI: 1.072-1.428) in relative to the period from 2008 to 2012. The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with the cohort, and a higher risk was found in the 1965-1984 cohort (all RR>1.300) in relative to the 1960-1964 cohort. The incidence of hepatitis C, the age and period effects in men and women, and the cohort effects in men were consistent with the whole population. In addition to the 1965-1984 cohort, a higher risk was found in the 2000-2014 cohort in women (all RR>1.250). Conclusions From 2008 to 2022, the incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City experienced a notable rise and subsequent decline. The incidence of hepatitis C increased with age, with higher risks seen among middle-aged and elderly people.
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Received: 17 July 2023
Revised: 26 August 2023
Published: 10 October 2023
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