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| Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the incidenceof other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County |
| WANG Jin-na, XU Ruo-jun, HUANG Da-kun, YE Han-li, CHEN Xiao-wei, HU Yong-wei, LI Xiao-qi, LING Feng
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| The Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310051, China |
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Abstract Objective To establish the multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in predicting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County, and to evaluate the prediction effect of the model. Methods Monthly data of other infectious diarrhea incidence in Yongjia County from January 2005 to December 2014 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System of China.Combined ARIMA model with stochastic seasonal model was used to establish the multiple seasonal ARIMA model. Monthly incidences of other infectious diarrhea in 2015 were short-term forecasted by the obtained model and compared with the actual data. Results The model ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12was supposed to be the best fitted model. The value of Ljung-Box Q statistic was 7.796 and Bayesian Information Criteria was 3.602, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)value was 36.166%. The short-term forecasting values in 2015 matched the actual values well, and the actual values were all fall within the 95% confidence interval of the forecasting values. Conclusion The ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12model can be used as a tool for short-term forecasting of the other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County.
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Received: 03 May 2016
Published: 21 November 2017
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