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| The Prediction model of herpangina epidemic trend based on Baidu index and hand, foot and mouth disease |
| WU Haocheng, LU Qinbao, DING Zheyuan, WANG Xinyi, FU Tianying, YANG Ke, WU Chen, LIN Junfen
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| Department of Public Health Surveillance and Advisory, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China |
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Abstract Objective To establish a prediction model of herpangina epidemic trend based on Baidu index and hand, foot and mouth disease, so as to provide insights into analyses of communicable disease epidemics with limited or missing surveillance data. Methods The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province during the period from the first week of 2015 through the 39th week of 2021 was retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Baidu index of hand, foot and mouth disease and herpangina was collected via the Baidu search engine during the same period. The correlation between the Baidu index and time series of hand, foot and mouth disease was examined using wavelet analysis. In addition, a random forest training model was created based on the Baidu index and incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease, and the fitting effectiveness was evaluated using the mean percentage error, while the Baidu index of herpangina was included in the model to predict the epidemic trend of herpangina during the study period. Results The Baidu index of herpangina and hand, foot and mouth disease, and the Baidu index and incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease all appeared two peaks at the 26th and 52th week. The phase difference was less than 0.1 week between the Baidu index and time series of hand, foot and mouth disease, and the mean percentage error of the training model was 13.07%, with high concordance between the predicted number and actual report number of cases with hand, foot and mouth disease. The numbers of herpangina cases were predicted to be 28 822, 27 341, 28 422, 51 782, 52 457 and 5 691 from 2015 to 2020, and there were totally 48 702 herpangina cases reported until the 39th week of 2021. Like hand, foot and mouth disease, the incidence of herpangina peaked between May and July. Conclusion The random forest training model based on the Baidu index and incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease is feasible to predict the epidemic trend of herpangina.
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Received: 18 October 2021
Revised: 28 December 2021
Published: 14 March 2022
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