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| Application of infectious disease index to prediction of infectious diseases |
| YIN Xi-ling, DAI Wen-can, WANG Song, ZHOU Yong, ZHU Ke-jing, LIANG Xiao-dong, LI De-yun, TAN Ai-jun
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| Zhuhai Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519000,China |
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Abstract Objective To establish a prediction model for infectious disease index（IDI）by autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）,and to provide forcast of infectious diseases to the public. Methods The data of the percentage of influenza-like illness（ILI）,the incidence rates of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）and other infectious diarrhea（OID）from the 1st week of 2014 to the 14th week of 2018,and Breteau index（BI）from the 1st week of 2016 to the 14th week of 2018 were collected. ARIMA models were built to predict the risk indicators of ILI,HFMD,OID and BI. The weights of the four indicators were evaluated seasonally by the entropy weight method. Then the IDI was calculated and the data of ILI,HFMD, OID and BI from 15th to 19th week in 2018 was used for verification. Results The forecast was in summer,so IDI=ROUND（0.33×risk index of ILI percentage +0.47×risk index of HFMD incidence +0.10×risk index of OID incidence+0.10×risk index of BI）. The predicted IDI would be 2（less safe）in the whole city and Xiangzhou District,and 1（safe）in Doumen District and Jinwan District. The consistency rates of IDI prediction was 97.50%,95.00%,97.50%,85.00% and 77.50% from 15th to 19th week in 2018,respectively. Conclusion It was feasible to use IDI for short-term risk prediction of infectious diseases.
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Revised: 11 June 2019
Published: 02 September 2019
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