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| Analysis and prediction of death from injury in Fengcheng residents |
| YI Man*, TIAN Pei-ru, SUN Qiu-hong, SHI Jing-pu
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| * Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine,The First Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang, Liaoning 110001,China |
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Abstract Objective To learn the trend of death from injury in Fengcheng residents from 2009 to 2017 and predict from 2018 to 2021,in order to provide the basis for injury prevention and control. Methods All cause of death monitoring data and demographic data of Fengcheng from 2009 to 2017 were collected,injury mortality,standardized mortality and annual change percentage（APC）were calculated,and GM（1,1）was established to predict the injury mortality from 2018 to 2021. Results From 2009 to 2017,the injury death rate in Fengcheng was 52.68 per 100 000 and the standardized death rate was 46.50 per 100 000. The APC of the total standardized mortality was -5.10%,showing a decreasing trend year by year（P<0.05）. The injury mortality and standardized mortality in males were higher than that in female（both P <0.05）. The highest injury mortality lay in the group aged 65 years and above,which was 108.13 per 100 000. The top five causes of injury death were traffic accident,suiside,poisoning,fall and drowning,their mortality rate were 27.03 per 100 000,7.84 per 100 000,5.62 per 100 000,5.08 per 100 000 and 2.36 per 100 000,respectively. The mortality of traffic accident in males and suicide in females showed a decreasing trend（P<0.05）,while the mortality of fall showed an increasing trend（all P<0.05）. The model of GM（1,1）predicted that the injury mortality from 2018 to 2021 would be 48.00 per 100 000,44.15 per 100 000,40.61 per 100 000 and 37.35 per 100 000,which showed a decreasing trend year by year. Conclusion The injury death rates in Fengcheng dropp year by year from 2009 to 2017 and will probably keep dropping from 2018 to 2021. Men and people aged 65 years or over are at high risk of death from injury,traffic accident and fall are the main causes.
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Received: 12 March 2019
Revised: 03 April 2019
Published: 02 August 2019
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