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| Definition of dengue risk thresholds of route index and mosq-ovitrap index |
| LI Chen*, JIANG Min-hong, YUAN Dong-qing, FU Ju, LIU Dan, NIE Meng, CAO Na-xin
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| * Jiashan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiashan,Zhejiang 314100,China |
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Abstract Objective To estimate the risk threshold of route index（RI）and mosq-ovitrap index（MOI）based on Breteau index（BI）,as supplements for dengue fever risk monitoring in specific habitats. Methods Two towns and two streets were selected from nine towns（streets）in Jiashan County,and then one village（community）was selected from each of them as a Aedes albopictus monitoring site. The BI,RI and MOI were employed at the same time and area from April to October in the year 2018. Linear regression models were built with RI,MOI and BI to calculate the dengue risk threshold of RI and MOI according to BI. Results The linear regression model of BI（X）and RI（Y）was Y=0.145+0.662X（P<0.05）,of BI（X）and MOI（Y）was Y=3.423+0.524X（P<0.05）. If BI=5（having risk of transmission of dengue fever）,then RI=3.455（95%CI：1.717-5.198）,MOI=6.043（95%CI：-0.327-12.417）. If BI=10（having risk of outbreak）,then RI=6.765（95%CI：5.018-8.518）,MOI=8.663（95%CI：2.260-15.071）. If BI=20（having risk of epidemic）,then RI=13.385（95%CI：11.326-15.453）,MOI=13.903（95%CI：6.352-21.461）. Conclusion The dengue fever risk threshold of RI estimated by BI had a narrow 95%CI and could be applied for dengue fever risk assessment,while the risk threshold of MOI had a wide 95%CI and the application value needed further study.
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Received: 19 December 2018
Revised: 01 March 2019
Published: 13 May 2019
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