Abstract：Objective To establish the multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in predicting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County, and to evaluate the prediction effect of the model. Methods Monthly data of other infectious diarrhea incidence in Yongjia County from January 2005 to December 2014 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System of China.Combined ARIMA model with stochastic seasonal model was used to establish the multiple seasonal ARIMA model. Monthly incidences of other infectious diarrhea in 2015 were short-term forecasted by the obtained model and compared with the actual data. Results The model ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12was supposed to be the best fitted model. The value of Ljung-Box Q statistic was 7.796 and Bayesian Information Criteria was 3.602, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)value was 36.166%. The short-term forecasting values in 2015 matched the actual values well, and the actual values were all fall within the 95% confidence interval of the forecasting values. Conclusion The ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12model can be used as a tool for short-term forecasting of the other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County.
王金娜,徐若君,黄大锟,叶寒立,陈晓微,胡永卫,李晓祺,凌锋. ARIMA乘积季节模型预测永嘉县其他感染性腹泻的流行[J]. 预防医学, 2017, 29(2): 150-154.
WANG Jin-na, XU Ruo-jun, HUANG Da-kun, YE Han-li, CHEN Xiao-wei, HU Yong-wei, LI Xiao-qi, LING Feng. Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the incidenceof other infectious diarrhea in Yongjia County. Preventive Medicine, 2017, 29(2): 150-154.
LI Q, GUO N N, HAN Z Y, et al. Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2012, 87(2): 364-370.
YANG L, BI Z W, KOU Z Q, et al. Time-series analysis on human brucellosis during 2004-2013 in Shandong Province, China[J]. Zoonoses Public Health, 2015, 62(3): 228-235.
[8]
WANG T, LIU J, ZHOU Y, et al. Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014[J]. BMC Infect Dis, 2016 (16): 69.
[9]
YU H K, KIM N Y, KIM S S, et, al. Forecasting the number of human immunodeficiency virus infections in the Korean population using the autoregressive integrated moving average model[J]. Osong Public Health Res Perspect, 2013, 4(6): 358-362.
[10]
WANG T, ZHOU Y, WANG L, et al. Using an autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zibo, China, 2004-2014[J]. Jpn J Infect Dis, 2016, 69(4):279-284.
LIU Q, LIU X, JIANG B, et al. Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model[J]. BMC Infect Dis, 2011( 11): 218.
