Incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis B among people aged under 30 years in Quzhou City from 2005 to 2024
ZHENG Canjie1, YIN Zhiying1, HE Hanqing2, ZHOU Yang2
1. Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, Zhejiang 324000, China; 2. Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China
Abstract：Objective To investigate the trend in reported incidence of hepatitis B and to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort among people aged <30 years in Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2024. Methods Reported cases of hepatitis B among people aged <30 years in Quzhou City from 2005 to 2024 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The reported incidence was calculated. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the trend in reported incidence from 2005 to 2024. An age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the reported incidence of hepatitis B. Results From 2005 to 2024, a total of 3 805 hepatitis B cases were reported among people aged <30 years in Quzhou City, with an average annual reported incidence of 31.61/105. The average annual reported incidence of hepatitis B was higher in males than in females (36.65/105 vs. 26.08/105, P<0.05). From 2005 to 2024, the reported incidence of hepatitis B among the entire people aged <30 years, as well as among males and females separately in Quzhou City, showed declining trends (AAPC=-9.887%, -10.415%, and -9.320%, respectively, all P<0.05). The age-period-cohort model analysis revealed that the incidence first decreased and then increased with age, declining from 4.21/105 in the age group of 0-<5 years to 2.07/105 in the age group of 10-<15 years, before rising to 22.49/105 in the age group of 25-<30 years. Using the 2010-2014 period as the reference, the risk of hepatitis B showed a decreasing trend over time. The RR value decreased from 1.842 (95%CI: 1.433-2.366) for 2005-2009 to 0.446 (95%CI: 0.294-0.675) for 2020-2024. Using the 2000-2004 birth cohort as the reference, the risk showed a decreasing trend with more recent birth years. The highest risk was observed in the 1980-1984 birth cohort, with an RR value of 4.731 (95%CI: 3.083-7.259). The age, period, and cohort effects on the reported incidence of hepatitis B among males and females were generally consistent with those observed in the entire population. Conclusions From 2005 to 2024, the reported incidence of hepatitis B among people aged <30 years in Quzhou City showed a declining trend, while exhibiting a pattern of first decreasing and then increasing with age. Furthermore, the risk of hepatitis B incidence demonstrated a decreasing trend over both time periods and birth cohorts.
郑灿杰, 尹志英, 何寒青, 周洋. 2005—2024年衢州市30岁以下人群乙型病毒性肝炎发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析[J]. 预防医学, 2025, 37(12): 1206-1210,1216.
ZHENG Canjie, YIN Zhiying, HE Hanqing, ZHOU Yang. Incidence trend and age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis B among people aged under 30 years in Quzhou City from 2005 to 2024. Preventive Medicine, 2025, 37(12): 1206-1210,1216.
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