Effect of meteorological factors on rodent density
WANG Jin-na*，LAO Jia-hui，HOU Juan，GUO Song，WU Yu-yan，MA Xiao，XU Rong，GONG Zhen-yu
*Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention，Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention，Hangzhou，Zhejiang 310051，China
Abstract：Objective To analyse the correlation between rodent density and the meteorological factors from 2004 to 2016 in Ningbo，Zhejiang Province，and to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of the rodent-borne disease. Methods Data on rodent density and meteorological factors of Ningbo from January 2004 to December 2016 were collected. Pearson correlation or Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation of meteorological variables and rodent density. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the effects of meteorological factors on rodent density and its lag effect. Results The overall density of the rodents showed a gradual downward trend in recent years in Ningbo（P<0.05），with an average density of 0.59%. Rattus norvegicus was the dominant species in Ningbo. The monthly average temperature showed nonlinear smooth function relation with the rodent density of the current month （P<0.05），and negative correlation with the rodent density lagging three months （P<0.05）. The monthly sunshine duration showed negative correlation with the rodent density of the current month （P<0.05）. The monthly average water vapor pressure showed positive correlation with the rodent density lagging one month （P<0.05）. Conclusion The monthly average temperature and the monthly sunshine duration can influence the rodent density of the current month，and the monthly average temperature and the monthly average water vapor pressure might have lag effect.
