Please wait a minute...
文章检索
预防医学  2018, Vol. 30 Issue (7): 649-652,657    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2018.07.001
  论著 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于EPP-Spectrum模型的浙江省艾滋病疫情评估
杨介者,蒋均,潘晓红,徐云,陈婉君,何林,郑锦雷
浙江省疾病预防控制中心艾滋病性病防制所,浙江 杭州 310051
Estimating HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province with Estimation and Projection Package-Spectrum model
YANG Jie-zhe,JIANG Jun,PAN Xiao-hong,XU Yun,CHEN Wan-jun,HE Lin,ZHENG Jin-lei
Department of HIV/AIDS and STDs Prevention and Control,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China
全文: PDF(6401 KB)  
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 目的 应用EPP-Spectrum模型评估浙江省艾滋病疫情,为浙江省预防和控制艾滋病提供依据。方法 收集浙江省各类艾滋病高危人群规模、艾滋病感染率监测数据、艾滋病抗病毒治疗和人口学信息等资料,采用EPP-Spectrum模型拟合各类人群艾滋病流行曲线,对浙江省艾滋病感染率、现存活病例数、新发感染和死亡情况等进行综合评估。结果 截至2016年底,浙江省全人群艾滋病感染率为0.05%(95%CI:0.04%~0.06%)。现存活艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)27 542例(95%CI:24 564~31 187例),以性接触传播为主,同性性接触传播占46.94%,异性商业性行为传播占24.43%,非商业性行为(含配偶间)传播占25.29%。2016年HIV新发感染1 714例(95%CI:1 340~2 194例),新发感染例数2014—2016年基本持平,以性接触传播为主,同性性接触传播占47.55%,异性非商业性行为(含配偶间)传播构成呈上升趋势。2016年HIV/AIDS病例死亡642例(95%CI:476~896例),死亡人数呈缓慢增长后出现平台期。2012—2016年艾滋病检测发现和抗病毒治疗比例逐年上升,估计有57.70%的传染源得到控制。结论 浙江省艾滋病感染人数缓慢增长,疫情总体处于低流行态势;以男男性行为、异性商业性行为和异性非商业性行为传播为主。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
杨介者
蒋均
潘晓红
徐云
陈婉君
何林
郑锦雷
关键词 EPP-Spectrum模型艾滋病疫情评估    
AbstractObjective To evaluate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province through Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model and to provide scientific evidence for the control practice of AIDS. Methods Consecutive behavior surveillance data,HIV prevalence,the number of HIV/AIDS patients under highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) and social-demographic data from population census in Zhejiang Province were collected and input into the optimized EPP-Spectrum model. HIV epidemic curves of different sub-population were generated for comprehensive estimation of HIV/AIDS prevalence,people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA),the number of new HIV infection and the death toll in Zhejiang Province. Results It was estimated that by the end of 2016,the HIV infection rate in the whole population was 0.05%(95%CI:0.04%- 0.06%). There were a total of 27 542(95%CI:24 564-31 187)PLWHA in Zhejiang Province,with 46.94% of which by homosexual transmission,24.43% by commercial heterosexual transmission and 25.29% by non-commercial heterosexual (including spouses)transmission. There were 1 714(95%CI:1 340-2 194)new infections in 2016 and this number fluctuated slightly from 2014 to 2016. Most of the new HIV/AIDS were infected by sexual transmission,with homosexual transmission accounted for 47.55%;the proportion of non-commercial sex transmission(including spouses)increased year by year. A total of 642(95%CI:476-896)PLWHA died in 2016,and the number of death increased slowly and remained stable each year. A total of The proportion of PLWHA being diagnosed and under HAART increased during 2012-2016. It was estimated that 57.70% of PLWHA had been controlled. Conclusion The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2016 increased steadily and was at low prevalence. The main transmission routes were homosexual behaviors,commercialand non-commercial heterosexual behaviors.
Key wordsEPP-Spectrum model    AIDS    Epidemic estimation
         
中图分类号:  R512.91  
基金资助:国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10001-001);浙江省医药卫生科技项目(2016154151)
通信作者: 杨介者,E-mail:jzhyang@cdc.zj.cn   
作者简介: 杨介者,本科,副主任医师,主要从事艾滋病防制工作
引用本文:   
杨介者, 蒋均, 潘晓红, 徐云, 陈婉君, 何林, 郑锦雷. 基于EPP-Spectrum模型的浙江省艾滋病疫情评估[J]. 预防医学, 2018, 30(7): 649-652,657.
YANG Jie-zhe, JIANG Jun, PAN Xiao-hong, XU Yun, CHEN Wan-jun, HE Lin, ZHENG Jin-lei. Estimating HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province with Estimation and Projection Package-Spectrum model. Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(7): 649-652,657.
链接本文:  
http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2018.07.001      或      http://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/Y2018/V30/I7/649
[1] 刘黎,彭志行,施超,等. EPP模型在江苏省艾滋病疫情估计、预测与分析中的应用[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志,2010,14(6):479-483.
[2] STOVER J,BROWN T,MARSTON M. Updates to the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package(EPP)model to estimate HIV trends for adults and children[J]. Sex Transm Infect,2012, 88(Suppl 1):S111-S116.
[3] BROWN T,BAO L,EATON J W,et al. Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013 [J]. AIDS,2014,28(Suppl 4):S415-425.
[4] 刘珏,刘民,陶丽丽,等. 估计和预测艾滋病疫情的Spectrum/ EPP模型研究进展[J]. 中国艾滋病性病,2014,20(4):298-302.
[5] STOVER J,JOHNSON P,HALLETT T. et al. The Spectrum Projection Package:improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex,mother-to-child transmission,HIV progression in children and double orphans[J]. Sex Transm Infect,2010,86(Suppl 2):116-121.
[6] ROLLINS N,MAHY M,BECQUET R. et al. Estimates of Peripartum and postnatal mother-to-child transmission probabilities of HIV for use in Spectrum and other population-based models[J]. Sex Transm Infect,2012,88(Suppl 2):144-151.
[7] WOLBERS M,BABIKER A,SABIN C. et al. Pretreatment CD4 cell slope and progression to AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy the CASCADE collaboration:a collaboration of 23 cohort studies[J]. PLOS Med,2010,7(2):e1000239.
[8] 杨中荣,金玫华,董正全,等. 湖州市不同传播途径感染的HIV/AIDS流行特征分析[J]. 预防医学,2016,28(12):1200-1204.
[9] 徐云,潘晓红,杨介者,等. 浙江省2004—2013 年 MSM 的艾滋病疫情分析[J]. 中国艾滋病性病,2015,21(1):37-40.
[10]杨介者,蒋均,陈琳,等. 浙江省2010—2013 年MSM 艾滋病哨点监测结果分析[J].中国艾滋病性病,2014,20(12):922- 925.
[11]张兴亮,陈芳,李西婷,等. 杭州市大学生艾滋病疫情分析[J]. 预防医学,2017,29(2):161-164.
[12]卢巧玲,杨作凯,方益荣,等. 绍兴市15~24岁青少年HIV/AIDS特征分析[J]. 预防医学,2017,29(10):987-990.
[13]徐云,潘晓红,郑锦雷 等. 2015年浙江省艾滋病疫情估计[J]. 疾病监测,2017,32(2):118-122.
[14]马宁,刘民,郑敏,等. 应用EPP模型对北京市艾滋病疫情估计和预测分析[J]. 医学研究杂志,2012,41(4):30-34.
[15]刘民,马宁,郑敏,等. EPP模型估计湖南省艾滋病疫情的现状和发展趋势[J]. 中国艾滋病性病,2011,17(5):495-498.
[16]RAJ Y,SAHU D,PANDEY A,et al. Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India,2010-2011[J]. Jnt J STD AIDS,2016,27(14):1257-1266.
[17]VAN VEEN M G,PRESANIS A M,CONTI S,et al. National estimate of HIV prevalence in the Netherlands:comparison and applicability of different estimation tools[J]. AIDS,2011,25(2):229-237.
[18]冉莉,马宁,刘民. 四种常用的艾滋病疫情估计与预测模型的比较[J]. 中国艾滋病性病,2012,18(5):347-350.
[1] 俞素芬, 蒋青林, 戴杰. 2012—2021年吴兴区新报告HIV/AIDS病例晚发现及影响因素分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(9): 796-799.
[2] 郑伟, 张世勇, 杨纶砥, 熊华利. 基于年龄-时期-队列模型的1990—2019年我国艾滋病发病率趋势分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(8): 665-668,681.
[3] 王婷婷, 汪剡灵, 李桂霞, 常玥. 2012—2021年台州市新报告HIV/AIDS病例首次CD4+T淋巴细胞检测结果分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(7): 578-582.
[4] 姜海波, 洪航, 周健, 李继革, 史宏博, 谭诗文, 褚堃, 张丹丹. 宁波市HIV/AIDS病例新型毒品使用情况调查[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(6): 470-474.
[5] 柏建芸, 赵芳凝, 候金余, 郭燕, 郑敏娜, 李龙, 于茂河. 2005—2021年天津市医疗机构HIV/AIDS检测发现情况分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(6): 475-479.
[6] 徐亚华, 吴斌. 兰溪市120例HIV抗体筛查阳性样本确证结果分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(6): 538-540.
[7] 蔺茂文, 刘锐, 张凡, 李舒超, 刘建昭, 豆智慧, 孙春. 1996—2021年荆州市HIV/AIDS病例1年死亡分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(5): 396-400.
[8] 景正伟, 宁艳, 常文辉, 周超, 任强, 董丽芳, 贾华, 许诗瑶, 王志锋. 高校MSM人群HIV感染学生生存质量分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(4): 291-294.
[9] 许太彬, 程春荣, 段江洋, 兰培利, 段欣洋. 郑州市50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例流行特征[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(4): 323-326.
[10] 陈银炜, 周洋, 刘珍, 张晓辉. 流动人口HIV感染孕产妇健康综合评价指标体系研究[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(3): 210-214.
[11] 蒋均, 陈军仙, 楼莲娟, 朱碧香, 查琏琦, 阮建军. 义乌市2016—2020年报告HIV/AIDS病例流动特征分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(1): 21-26.
[12] 张鹤美, 高四海, 陈向阳, 叶振淼, 李君, 赵丽娜, 苏德华, 胡文雪, 赖江宜, 陈婉君. 2006—2020年温州市新报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例时空特征分析[J]. 预防医学, 2022, 34(5): 483-486.
[13] 张丽, 姚英, 胡锦峰, 潘忠廉. 上城区艾滋病自愿咨询检测门诊求询者特征及HIV感染情况分析[J]. 预防医学, 2022, 34(2): 161-165.
[14] 何丁玲, 冯世平, 赵霞, 郭利华, 吕春容, 李虹霞, 郭慧, 黄蕾. 艾滋病住院患者焦虑和抑郁情况调查[J]. 预防医学, 2022, 34(2): 166-170,175.
[15] 梁若枫, 周黎, 陈金花, 韩俊. 杭州市某高校大学生艾滋病防治知识、态度、行为调查[J]. 预防医学, 2022, 34(2): 208-212.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed