Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemic periods and excess cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province from 2015 to 2024, so as to provide evidence for optimizing prevention and control strategies for HFMD. Methods Data on HFMD cases in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024 were collected through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive analyze demographic and temporal distributions of HFMD. The adjusted Serfling regression model was constructed based on the weekly number of HFMD cases reported in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024 to estimate the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD incidence. An epidemic period was defined as a period during which the actual number of cases exceeded the epidemic threshold for more than 2 consecutive weeks, with an interval of no more than 1 week between epidemic periods. Excess cases were defined as the difference between the reported number of cases and the baseline number of cases during the epidemic periods. Results A total of 91 859 HFMD cases were reported in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024, with an average annual reported incidence of 183.90/105. There were 54 064 male cases (58.86%) and 37 795 female cases (41.14%). The majority of cases were aged 0-<5 years and scattered-living children, with 71 505 cases (77.84%) and 47 387 cases (51.59%). The temporal distribution of HFMD presented a bimodal pattern, with two peaks from May to July and September to November, with 44 578 cases (48.53%) and 23 434 cases (25.51%), respectively. After excluding data of 2017 (promotional vaccination of inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine) and 2020-2022 (COVID-19 prevention and control), the adjusted Serfling regression model achieved good fitting performance (R2=0.740). Six epidemic periods were identified from 2015 to 2024, including June 2016, May to July and September to October 2018, June to August and September to October 2023, and June to July 2024, with a cumulative epidemic duration of 28 weeks, and 16 772 excess cases accumulated in these periods. Conclusions HFMD in Jiaxing City showed a bimodal temporal distribution from 2015 to 2024, with high incidence among children aged 0-<5 years and scattered-living children. Six epidemic periods were identified by the adjusted Serfling regression model. Early warning should be strengthened for spring and summer peaks and high-risk populations.
李睿, 富小飞, 王远航, 刘杨. 2015—2024年嘉兴市手足口病流行特征及超额发病分析[J]. 预防医学, 2026, 38(9): 900-902,906.
LI Rui, FU Xiaofei, WANG Yuanhang, LIU Yang. Epidemiological characteristics and excess incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jiaxing City from 2015 to 2024. Preventive Medicine, 2026, 38(9): 900-902,906.
