Abstract：Objective To predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) by using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The ARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence rates of HFMD in Xishan District of Wuxi from 2008 to 2014 using SPSS 19.0. The prediction effect of the model was verified by the incidence from January to December in 2015. The model was used to predict the incidence of HFMD in 2016 using the monthly incidence rates of HFMD in Xishan District of Wuxi from 2008 to 2015. Results Through the test of parameters and goodness of fit as well as white-noise residuals, we finalized the model ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)12, of which BIC(Bayeian Information Criterion)was 4.619( R2=0.713, Ljung-Box=16.007, P>0.05).The predicted incidence rate was 335.13/100 000 in 2016. Conclusion The model could predict the incidence trend of HFMD, and it could be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of HFMD.
李杰, 顾月. ARIMA模型在预测手足口病发病中的应用[J]. 预防医学, 2016, 28(10): 987-991.
LI Jie, GU Yue. The application of ARIMA model in predicting theincidence of hand-foot-mouth disease. Preventive Medicine, 2016, 28(10): 987-991.