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预防医学  2022, Vol. 34 Issue (11): 1172-1177    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2022.11.018
  疾病控制 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
2005—2020年下城区30~69岁居民4种慢性病早死概率分析
何宝华, 周晓红, 席胜军, 杨青
杭州市拱墅区疾病预防控制中心慢病科,浙江 杭州 310022
Probability of premature death for four non-communicable diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District from 2005 to 2020
HE Baohua, ZHOU Xiaohong, XI Shengjun, YANG Qing
Department of Chronic Non-communiciable Diseases Control and Prevention, Gongshu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310022, China
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摘要 目的 分析2005—2020年杭州市下城区30~69岁居民心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病的死亡率、早死概率以及变化趋势,为制定慢性病防治策略提供依据。方法 通过浙江省慢性病监测信息管理系统收集2005—2020年下城区30~69岁居民上述4种慢性病死亡资料,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率和早死概率,采用2010年浙江省第六次人口普查数据标化;采用年均变化百分比(AAPC)分析死亡率和早死概率的变化趋势。结果 2005—2020年下城区30~69岁居民因4种慢性病死亡6 436例,粗死亡率为183.33/10万,标化死亡率为152.88/10万,均呈下降趋势,AAPC值分别为-1.099%和-2.926%(P<0.05)。早死概率由10.40%下降至6.78%,呈下降趋势,AAPC值为-2.827%(P<0.05)。恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和心脑血管疾病的早死概率均呈下降趋势,AAPC值分别为-2.681%、-6.571%和-2.286%(P<0.05);慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率未见明显变化趋势,AAPC值为-4.263%(P>0.05)。男性4种慢性病的早死概率由2005年的13.55%下降至2020年的9.36%,AAPC值为-2.150%(P<0.05);女性4种慢性病的早死概率由2005年的7.18%下降至2020年的4.22%,AAPC值为-4.149%(P<0.05)。结论 2005—2020年下城区居民慢性病死亡率和早死概率均呈下降趋势,其中恶性肿瘤、心脑血管病和糖尿病早死概率下降显著。
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何宝华
周晓红
席胜军
杨青
关键词 恶性肿瘤心脑血管疾病糖尿病慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率趋势    
AbstractObjective To investigate the mortality and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases and their trends among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020, so as to provide insights into the development of the chronic disease control strategy. Methods The data regarding the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020 were captured from the Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System, and the crude mortality, standardized mortality by the sixth population census data in Zhejiang Province in 2010 and probability of premature death for these four chronic diseases were estimated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed in Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020 using average annual percent change (AAPC). Results A total of 6 436 deaths occurred due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020. The crude and standardized mortality rates were 183.33/105 and 152.88/105, which both appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2005 to 2020 (AAPC=-1.099% and -2.926%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death reduced from 10.40% in 2005 to 6.78% in 2020, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-2.827%, P<0.05). The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors, diabetes and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 2005 to 2020 (AAPC=-2.681%, -6.571% and -2.286%, all P<0.05), while no significant changing trend was seen in the probability of premature death due to chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-4.263%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death for these four chronic diseases reduced from 13.55% in 2005 to 9.36% in 2020 among male residents (AAPC=-2.150%, P<0.05), and reduced from 7.18% in 2005 to 4.22% in 2020 among female residents (AAPC=-4.149%, P<0.05). Conclusions The mortality and probability of premature death due to chronic diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Xiacheng District, Hangzhou City from 2005 to 2020, and there was a significant decline in the probability of premature death for malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes.
Key wordscardio-cerebrovascular diseases    malignant tumors    diabetes    chronic respiratory diseases    probability of premature death    trend
收稿日期: 2022-08-15      修回日期: 2022-09-25      出版日期: 2022-11-10
中图分类号:  R181.3  
作者简介: 何宝华,本科,主管医师,主要从事死因监测和慢病社区管理工作
引用本文:   
何宝华, 周晓红, 席胜军, 杨青. 2005—2020年下城区30~69岁居民4种慢性病早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2022, 34(11): 1172-1177.
HE Baohua, ZHOU Xiaohong, XI Shengjun, YANG Qing. Probability of premature death for four non-communicable diseases among residents at ages of 30 to 69 years in Xiacheng District from 2005 to 2020. Preventive Medicine, 2022, 34(11): 1172-1177.
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