1. Jiaxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314050, China; 2. Nicheng Community Health Service Center of Pudong New Area, Shanghai 201306, China; 3. School of Public Health, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu 215127, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the surveillance data of schistosomiasis and snail status in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2024, so as to provide the reference for prevention and control of schistosomiasis in jiaxing City. Methods Data on schistosomiasis and snail surveillance in Jiaxing City from 2001 to 2024 were collected through schistosomiasis control work reports and the Zhejiang Provincial Schistosomiasis (Parasitic Diseases) Control Information Management System. These data included serological testing results, stool etiological examination (stool examination) results, area surveyed for snails, snail-infested areas, number of snail-positive frames, and number of live snails. Indicators, including the positive rate of serological testing, the positive rate of stool examinations, the rate of snail-positive frames, and the density of live snails were analyzed. The Prophet time series model was employed to forecast the schistosomiasis epidemic in Jiaxing City from 2025 to 2029. Results A total of 636 493 serological testing were conducted in Jiaxing City from 2001 to 2024, with a positive rate of 1.532%, showing a decreasing trend (P<0.05). Among 7 582 stool examinations, positive cases were all imported, resulting in a positivity rate of 0.066%. During the same period, snail surveys covered a cumulative area of 30 545.999 hm2, with snail-infested areas totaling 69.355 hm2; no significant trend was observed (P>0.05). All snail habitats were identified as recurrent foci within hydrographic network regions, primarily distributed across Xiuzhou District, Nanhu District, Pinghu City, Jiashan County, and Tongxiang City, with snail-infested areas of 39.588, 12.538, 10.728, 4.315, and 2.186 hm2, respectively. From 2009 to 2024, a total of 35 692 134 frames of snails were surveyed, of which 16 543 were snail-positive, yielding a snail-positive frame rate of 0.046%. A total of 33 175 live snails were collected, with a mean density of 0.000 98 snails per frame. No infected Oncomelania snails were detected. The projection results indicated that from 2025 to 2029, the positive rate of serological testing rate in Jiaxing City would range between 0.253% to 0.389%, the snail-infested areas would range from 0.025 to 1.818 hm2, and the density of live snails would vary from 0.001 56 to 0.001 66 snails per frame. None of these indicators showed a significant trend (all P>0.05). Conclusions From 2001 to 2024, the positive rate of serological testing rate of schistosomiasis in Jiaxing City showed a declining trend, with no new autochthonous cases or infected Oncomelania snails detected. However, imported cases were still reported. All identified snail habitats were recurrent foci within hydrographic network regions. It is recommended to enhance schistosomiasis and snail status surveillance in high-risk areas.
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