Excess mortality risk associated with atmospheric PM2.5 exposure
ZHANG Kaiyue1, LI Xiaoqin1, XIA Junpeng1, DAI Xiangyu1, WU Jingjing1, JIANG Meng1, WANG Fang2, LU Shenghua1
1. Department of Environmental Health, Yangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225100, China; 2. Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221004, China
Abstract：Objective To evaluate the risk of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on excess mortality among residents. Methods The data of residential mortality in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2021 were collected from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The average daily mass concentration of PM2.5 and meteorology data were collected from the Yangzhou Environmental Monitoring Station and Yangzhou Meteorological Bureau, respectively. The effects of PM2.5 on non-accidental mortality, morality of respiratory diseases and mortality of circulatory diseases were evaluated using a generalized additive model. The risk of excess mortality was evaluated using excess risk (ER) and the number of excess mortality. Results The median average annual mass concentration of PM2.5 was 38.00 (interquartile range, 31.95) µg/m3 in Yangzhou City from 2015 to 2021, decreasing from 51.75 (interquartile range, 32.82) µg/m3 in 2015 to 28.00 (interquartile range, 23.42) µg/m3 in 2021. The median average annual number of non-accidental mortality, mortality of respiratory diseases and mortality of circulatory diseases were 96 (interquartile range, 22), 9 (interquartile range, 5) and 38 (interquartile range, 13) cases, respectively. The greatest effects of per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 mass concentration on non-accidental mortality, mortality of respiratory diseases, and mortality of circulatory diseases were seen at a cumulative lag of 1 day (ER=0.528%, 95%CI: 0.293%-0.763%), a cumulative lag of 2 days (ER=0.917%, 95%CI: 0.125%-1.714%) and a cumulative lag of 1 day (ER=0.595%, 95%CI: 0.232%-0.961%), respectively. The number of excess mortality caused by PM2.5 on non-accidental mortality, mortality of respiratory diseases, and mortality of circulatory diseases in Yangzhou City from 2015 to 2021 were 2 125, 412 and 977 cases, respectively; compared with 2015, the number of excess mortality in 2021 decreased by 66.95%, 75.53% and 64.42%, respectively. Conclusions An increase in the mass concentration of atmospheric PM2.5 may elevate the risk of excess mortality among residents. Compared to 2015, the number of excess deaths attributed to exposure to atmospheric PM2.5 declined in 2021.
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