Mortality and probability of premature death due to four chronic diseasesin Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021
JIANG Yuanyuan1, WANG Dongfei1, LIN Junying1, LI Yurong1, GAO Yuanyuan1, ZHAO Fangfang1, XU Hong2
1. Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311201, China; 2. Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311201, China
Abstract：Objective To investigate the mortality, probability of premature death and trends due to malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies. Methods The deaths of the four diseases in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021 were collected from Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Diseases Surveillance Information Management System. The crude mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the attainment of probability of premature death due to the four diseases was evaluated using the targets of probability of premature death control in 2025 and 2030. Results Totally 36 130 deaths due to the four diseases were reported in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021. The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 445.20/105 and 237.81/105, which appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-1.427% and -4.051%, both P<0.05), and the probability of premature death decreased from 9.99% to 7.82%, (AAPC=-4.123%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality of malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-3.017%, -4.999%, and -6.024%, all P<0.05), while there was no significant trend in the standardized mortality of diabetes (AAPC=-0.847%, P>0.05). The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.167%, P<0.05), while there was no significant trends seen in the probability of premature death due to diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=0.638%, -5.250% and -2.022%, all P>0.05). The average probability of premature death due to the four diseases decreased by 4.00% each year, and decreased by 6.64% in 2025 and 5.42% in 2030 as predicted, which were both lower than the target values of 7.99% and 6.99%. Conclusions The mortality and probability of premature death due to the four diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021, with the probability of premature death of malignant tumors decreased significantly. It is predicted that the probability of premature death of the four diseases can reach the target in 2025 and 2030.
蒋园园, 王冬飞, 林君英, 李玉荣, 高媛媛, 赵芳芳, 徐红. 2015—2021年萧山区4类慢性病死亡及早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2024, 36(2): 147-151.
JIANG Yuanyuan, WANG Dongfei, LIN Junying, LI Yurong, GAO Yuanyuan, ZHAO Fangfang, XU Hong. Mortality and probability of premature death due to four chronic diseasesin Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2021. Preventive Medicine, 2024, 36(2): 147-151.
