Abstract：Objective To investigate the mortality of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases and trends in probability of premature mortality due to these four chronic diseases in Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for perfecting the chronic disease control strategy. Methods The mortality of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases among household registered residents in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021 were collected from the Guangdong Provincial Population Death Information Registration Management System, and the crude mortality, standardized mortality by the population of the Fifth National Population Census in China in 2000 and probability of premature mortality were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature mortality were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC), and whether achieving the targets for the probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in 2025 and 2030 were evaluated. Results A total of 226 012 deaths occurred due to four chronic diseases in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021, and the overall crude mortality and standardized mortality rates were 569.22/105 and 283.29/105, with a reduction in the probability of premature mortality from 15.04% to 12.05% (AAPC=-2.403%, Z=-7.603, P<0.001). The probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases decreased from 19.21% to 16.38% in males, and from 10.42% to 7.58% in females (AAPC=-1.893% and -3.085%, Z=-5.262 and -9.811, both P<0.001). The probability of premature mortality due to diabetes appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=2.317%, Z=2.548, P=0.034), and the probability of premature mortality due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases showed a tendency towards a decline (AAPC=-4.826%, Z=-13.590, P<0.001), while no significant changing trend was seen in the probability of premature mortality due to malignant tumors or chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-0.751% and -2.461%, Z=-1.532 and -1.730, P=0.125 and 0.122). The predicted probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases was 10.92% in 2025 and 9.66% in 2030 in Jiangmen City, which were both lower than the target (11.21% and 9.81%). Conclusions The probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021, which can reach the target in 2025 and 2030. Males should be given a high priority for interventions of chronic diseases, and diabetes control should be reinforced.
聂东梅, 李一鹏, 黄妍. 2012—2021年江门市4类慢性病早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(7): 602-606.
NIE Dongmei, LI Yipeng, HUANG Yan. Probability of premature mortality due to four chronic diseases in Jiangmen City from 2012 to 2021. Preventive Medicine, 2023, 35(7): 602-606.
