Abstract：Objective To analyze the trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and their influencing factors among community patients with hypertension, so as to provide evidence for improving SBP management. Methods Patients diagnosed with hypertension in 2020 at community health service centers in Longhua District, Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, with established health records and standardized follow-up management, were selected as participants. In May 2026, data on gender, age, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, SBP, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were collected by matching the health examination database and the hypertension patient health management database of the National Basic Public Health Service Program through personal health codes. A latent class trajectory model (LCTM) was established using SBP follow-up data from 2020 to 2025 to identify SBP trajectories. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to analyse factors affecting SBP trajectories among community patients with hypertension. Results A total of 17 281 community patients with hypertension were included, comprising 9 951 (57.58%) males and 7 330 (42.42%) females. The mean age of the participants was (55.91±10.95) years. The LCTM identified three distinct SBP trajectories, defined according to SBP patterns as the low-stable, moderate-stable and high-stable groups, comprising 5 170 (29.92%), 10 005 (57.90%) and 2 106 (12.19%) patients, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that, compared with the low-stable group, patients aged ≥65 years, without Shenzhen household registration, unemployed, without medical insurance, hypertension duration of ≥10 years, overweight or obese, central obesity, higher FPG and higher LDL-C had higher odds of being classified into the moderate-stable group. Patients with a junior high school education or above had lower odds of being classified into the moderate-stable group. Patients aged ≥65 years, unemployed, unmarried, divorced or widowed, without medical insurance, hypertension duration of ≥5 years, overweight or obese, central obesity, higher FPG and higher LDL-C had higher odds of being classified into the high-stable group. Patients with a junior high school education or above and smokers had lower odds of being classified into the high-stable group. Conclusions SBP trajectories among community patients with hypertension were classified into three patterns: low-stable, moderate-stable and high-stable groups. Demographic characteristics, social factors and metabolic indicators were associated with SBP trajectories.
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