1990—2021年中国15~39岁人群糖尿病疾病负担趋势分析

doi:10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2025.12.011

预防医学

2025, Vol. 37

Issue (12): 1242-1246 DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2025.12.011

疾病控制

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1990—2021年中国15~39岁人群糖尿病疾病负担趋势分析

刘雨欣, 梁丽军

天津中医药大学管理学院,天津 301617

Trend in disease burden of diabetes mellitus among population aged 15 to 39 years in China from 1990 to 2021

LIU Yuxin, LIANG Lijun

School of Management, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 301617, China

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摘要目的分析1990—2021年中国15~39岁人群糖尿病疾病负担变化趋势。方法通过2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库收集1990—2021年中国15~39岁人群糖尿病发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年（DALY）率等资料,按性别、年龄分析疾病负担;采用平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）分析15~39岁人群疾病负担变化趋势。结果中国15~39岁人群糖尿病发病率、患病率和DALY率分别从1990年的142.63/10万、1 826.41/10万和138.04/10万上升至2021年的287.68/10万、5 245.93/10万和316.82/10万,呈上升趋势（AAPC=2.313%、3.502%和2.734%,均P<0.05）;死亡率从1990年的0.67/10万下降至2021年的0.57/10万,呈下降趋势（AAPC=-0.518%,P<0.05）。1990—2021年15~39岁男性和女性糖尿病发病率（AAPC=2.404%和2.160%）、患病率（AAPC=3.576%和3.389%）和DALY率（AAPC=2.936%和2.454%）呈上升趋势;女性死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-1.809%,P<0.05）,男性死亡率趋势无统计学意义（P>0.05）。2021年20~<25岁组糖尿病发病率较高,为525.57/10万;1990—2021年15~<20岁、20~<25岁、25~<30岁、30~<35岁和35~39岁组糖尿病发病率（AAPC=4.064%、3.828%、1.757%、1.026%和0.810%）、患病率（AAPC=2.374%、3.625%、3.371%、2.985%和2.647%）和DALY率（AAPC=1.045%、2.723%、2.787%、2.289%和1.876%）呈上升趋势,死亡率（AAPC=-2.480%、-1.164%、-0.724%、-0.979%和-1.139%）呈下降趋势（均P<0.05）。结论 1990—2021中国15~39岁人群糖尿病疾病负担总体呈上升趋势,男性和20~<25岁人群是糖尿病防治重点人群。

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	刘雨欣
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关键词 ：糖尿病, 疾病负担, 平均年度变化百分比

Abstract：Objective To investigate the trend in disease burden of diabetes mellitus among population aged 15 to 39 years in China from 1990 to 2021. Methods Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of diabetes mellitus among population aged 15 to 39 years in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database. The disease burden of diabetes mellitus was analyzed by gender and age. The trend in disease burden among population aged 15 to 39 years was analyzed by average annual percent change (AAPC). Results The incidence, prevalence and DALY rate of diabetes mellitus increased from 142.63/10⁵, 1 826.41/10⁵, and 138.04/10⁵ in 1990 to 287.68/10⁵, 5 245.93/10⁵, and 316.82/10⁵ in 2021, respectively, showing significant upward trends (AAPC=2.313%, 3.502% and 2.734%, all P<0.05). In contrast, the mortality decreased from 0.67/10⁵ in 1990 to 0.57/10⁵ in 2021, demonstrating a significant downward trend (AAPC=-0.518%, P<0.05). From 1990 to 2021, the incidences (AAPC=2.404% and 2.160%), prevalences (AAPC=3.576% and 3.389%), and DALY rates (AAPC=2.936% and 2.454%) of diabetes mellitus among males and females showed upward trends (all P<0.05). The mortality among females demonstrated a downward trend (AAPC=-1.809%, P<0.05), while the trend among males was not statistically significant (P>0.05). In 2021, the age group of 20 to <25 years had a relatively high incidence of diabetes mellitus, at 525.57/10⁵. From 1990 to 2021, the incidences (AAPC=4.064%, 3.828%, 1.757%, 1.026% and 0.810%), prevalences (AAPC=2.374%, 3.625%, 3.371%, 2.985% and 2.647%), and DALY rates (AAPC=1.045%, 2.723%, 2.787%, 2.289% and 1.876%) of diabetes mellitus in age groups of 15 to <20 years, 20 to <25 years, 25 to <30 years, 30 to <35 years, and 35 to 39 years showed upward trends (all P<0.05). Conversely, the mortality (AAPC=-2.480%, -1.164%, -0.724%, -0.979% and -1.139%) in these age groups demonstrated downward trends (all P<0.05). Conclusion The overall disease burden of diabetes mellitus among population aged 15 to 39 years in China showed an upward trend, with males and the age group of 20 to <25 years being key target populations for diabetes mellitus prevention and control.

Key words： diabetes mellitus disease burden average annual percent change

收稿日期: 2025-08-06 修回日期: 2025-09-29 出版日期: 2025-12-10

中图分类号:

R587.1

基金资助:科技创新2030四大慢病重大专项（2024ZD0524300,2024ZD0524301）; 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（72104180）

作者简介: 刘雨欣,硕士研究生在读,管理科学与工程专业

通信作者: 梁丽军,E-mail：lljun216@126.com

引用本文:

刘雨欣, 梁丽军. 1990—2021年中国15~39岁人群糖尿病疾病负担趋势分析[J]. 预防医学, 2025, 37(12): 1242-1246.
LIU Yuxin, LIANG Lijun. Trend in disease burden of diabetes mellitus among population aged 15 to 39 years in China from 1990 to 2021. Preventive Medicine, 2025, 37(12): 1242-1246.

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