A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years
ZHOU Guoying1,2, XING Lili1, SU Ying1, LIU Hongjie1, LIU He1, WANG Di1, XUE Jinfeng1, DAI Wei1, WANG Jing1, YANG Xinghua2
1. Dongcheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100009, China; 2. School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China
Abstract：Objective To establish a prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease (CVD) among residents aged 35 to 75 years, so as to provide the basis for improving CVD prevention and control measures. Methods Permanent residents aged 35 to 75 years were selected from Dongcheng District, Beijing Municipality using the stratified random sampling method from 2018 to 2023. Demographic information, lifestyle, waist circumference and blood biochemical indicators were collected through questionnaire surveys, physical examinations and laboratory tests. Influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model, and a prediction model for high-risk CVD was established. The predictive effect was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results A total of 6 968 individuals were surveyed, including 2 821 males (40.49%) and 4 147 females (59.51%), and had a mean age of (59.92±9.33) years. There were 1 155 high-risk CVD population, with a detection rate of 16.58%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, smoking, central obesity, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years (all P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve of the established prediction model was 0.849 (95%CI: 0.834-0.863), with a sensitivity of 0.693 and a specificity of 0.863, indicating good discrimination. Conclusion The model constructed by eight factors including demographic characteristics, lifestyle and blood biochemical indicators has good predictive value for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years.
周国营, 邢丽丽, 苏颖, 刘宏杰, 刘赫, 王迪, 薛锦峰, 戴威, 汪静, 杨兴华. 35~75岁居民心血管病高危风险预测模型研究[J]. 预防医学, 2025, 37(1): 12-16.
ZHOU Guoying, XING Lili, SU Ying, LIU Hongjie, LIU He, WANG Di, XUE Jinfeng, DAI Wei, WANG Jing, YANG Xinghua. A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years. Preventive Medicine, 2025, 37(1): 12-16.
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