Abstract：Objective To analyze the probability of premature mortality and temporal trend caused by four main non-communicable diseases（NCDs）in Fenghua District of Ningbo City from 2010 to 2015,and to provide data support for achieving Health China 2030 reduction target. Methods The data of deaths were from chronic disease surveillance information management system in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2015. According to the life-table method of calculating premature mortality probability,the premature mortality of four main NCDs by different gender,years and regions was analyzed and compared. Taking “Health China 2030” goal of reduction 30% as the standard for the probability of premature mortality caused by major NCDs to evaluate the descent space of premature mortality. Results The probability of premature mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and cancer was higher than that of chronic respiratory disease and diabetes,and the probability of premature mortality in men was higher than that in women. The top three villages and towns in terms of probability of prematuremortality caused by four main NCDs were Dayan town,Songao town and Xiwu Street in turn. From 2010 to 2015,the probabilities of premature mortality in four main NCDs were all declined consistently in Fenghua District of Ningbo City（P<0.05）,and the total of four main NCDs decreased from 12.05% to 10.21%. The probability of premature mortality of four main NCDs declined by 3.26% a year on average with higher decreasing in women（6.56%）than that in men（1.32%）. Compared with 2015 baseline,the premature mortality of four NCDs in men would decrease by 4.11% to reach 2030 goal（9.60%）,and the probability of premature mortality four main NCDs in women would decrease by 1.96% to reach the 2030 goal（4.58%）. Conclusion s The probabilities of premature mortality in four main NCDs were all declined consistently in Fenghua District of Ningbo City. Compared with women,the men had higher probabilities and declined slower,and there were significant different in probabilities of premature mortality and their change speed among villages and towns.
王海明, 王春丽, 冯伟. 奉化区主要慢性非传染性疾病早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2018, 30(2): 134-138.
WANG Hai-ming, WANG Chun-li, FENG Wei. Premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases in Fenghua District. Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(2): 134-138.
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