Trend in incidence of diabetes and age-period-cohort analysis among children and adolescents in Huzhou City from 2006 to 2025
LI Haihua1, YE Yong1, YUAN Rui2, YUN Jingyi2, WANG Haobo3, FU Yuxin3
1. Huzhou Central Hospital, Fifth School of Clinical Medicine of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Huzhou, Zhejiang 313000, China; 2. Huzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huzhou, Zhejiang 313000, China; 3. Huzhou University, Huzhou, Zhejiang 313000, China
Abstract：Objective To investigate the trend of diabetes incidence among children and adolescents in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2025, and to analyze the age, period, and cohort effects, so as to provide insights into the prevention and control of diabetes among children and adolescents. Methods Data on diabetes cases aged 0-19 years in Huzhou City from 2006 to 2025 were collected through the Chronic Disease Surveillance and Management System of Huzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The standardized incidence was calculated using the age composition of the standard population from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to analyze the trend in incidence. An age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Results A total of 913 diabetes cases aged 0-19 years were reported in Huzhou City from 2006 to 2025. The crude incidence and standardized incidence were 11.03/105 and 4.33/105, respectively, both showing upward trends (AAPC=13.307% and 13.226%, both P<0.05). There were 339 cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), with crude and standardized incidence of 3.83/105 and 0.62/105, respectively, showing upward trends (AAPC=9.944% and 10.442%, both P<0.05). There were 548 cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with crude and standardized incidence of 6.20/105 and 1.97/105, respectively, showing upward trends (AAPC=14.920% and 14.213%, both P<0.05). Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the risk of T1DM initially increased and then decreased with age, with the highest risk in the 5-<10 years age group (RR=9.189, 95%CI: 4.871-13.684). The risk of T2DM increased with age, with the highest risk in the 15-19 years age group (RR=17.316, 95%CI: 14.477-20.225). Using the period 2011-2015 as the reference group, the risk of T1DM showed an upward trend over time, with the highest risk in 2021-2025 (RR=1.474, 95%CI: 1.027-2.114). There were no statistically significant differences in incidence risk across other periods compared to 2011-2015 (all P>0.05). Using the 2006-2010 birth cohort as the reference group, the risks of both T1DM and T2DM showed upward trends with later birth cohorts. The highest risk of T1DM was observed in the 2021-2025 birth cohort (RR=2.881, 95%CI: 1.528-5.429), while the highest risk of T2DM was observed in the 2011-2016 birth cohort (RR=1.610, 95%CI: 1.081-2.397). Conclusions The incidence of diabetes among children and adolescents in Huzhou City showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2025, with T1DM being most prevalent among children aged 5-<10 years and T2DM among adolescents aged 15-19 years. The incidence risks of both T1DM and T2DM increased with later birth years.
李海华, 叶勇, 袁瑞, 运靖宜, 王浩博, 傅雨欣. 2006—2025年湖州市儿童青少年糖尿病发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析[J]. 预防医学, 2026, 38(3): 257-262.
LI Haihua, YE Yong, YUAN Rui, YUN Jingyi, WANG Haobo, FU Yuxin. Trend in incidence of diabetes and age-period-cohort analysis among children and adolescents in Huzhou City from 2006 to 2025. Preventive Medicine, 2026, 38(3): 257-262.
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