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预防医学  2024, Vol. 36 Issue (10): 873-877    DOI: 10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2024.10.011
  疾病控制 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
首次脑卒中患者生存率分析
李玉荣, 王冬飞, 高媛媛, 汪芬娟, 林君英, 蒋园园, 赵芳芳, 肖段段
杭州市萧山区疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制科,浙江 杭州 311203
Analysis of survival rate among patients with first-ever stroke
LI Yurong, WANG Dongfei, GAO Yuanyuan, WANG Fenjuan, LIN Junying, JIANG Yuanyuan, ZHAO Fangfang, XIAO Duanduan
Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Xiaoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311203, China
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摘要 目的 了解首次脑卒中患者的生存情况及其影响因素,为提高脑卒中患者生存质量和改善预后提供依据。方法 通过杭州市慢性病监测管理系统收集萧山区2017年首次报告的脑卒中新发病例的人口学信息、疾病史、吸烟史和饮酒史等资料;以脑卒中死亡为结局事件,连续随访观察5年。采用Kaplan-Meier法计算生存率,采用多因素Cox比例风险回归模型分析首次脑卒中患者生存时间的影响因素。结果 纳入3 886例首次脑卒中患者,其中脑梗死、脑内出血、蛛网膜下腔出血和脑卒中未特指为出血或梗死(未特指)的病例分别占86.93%、11.45%、1.06%和0.57%。男性2 047例,占52.68%;女性1 839例,占47.32%。发病年龄为(72.01±11.61)岁。截至2022年12月31日随访结束,因脑卒中死亡906例,随访时间MQR)为62.00(35.00)个月。1年生存率为87.35%(95%CI:86.30%~88.41%),3年生存率为82.11%(95%CI:80.88%~83.34%),5年生存率为76.64%(95%CI:75.26%~78.02%)。多因素Cox比例风险回归分析结果显示,发病年龄≥75岁(HR=5.543,95%CI:3.822~8.039)、诊治医院级别为乡镇级(HR=5.934,95%CI:4.027~8.743)、有高血压史(HR=1.566,95%CI:1.317~1.863)、有慢性缺血性心脏病史(HR=1.611,95%CI:1.362~1.906)、有吸烟史(HR=1.455,95%CI:1.190~1.778)、有饮酒史(HR=1.323,95%CI:1.067~1.641)和脑卒中亚型为脑内出血(HR=3.442,95%CI:2.923~4.053)和未特指(HR=6.843,95%CI:4.353~10.756)与首次脑卒中患者较高死亡风险有关。结论 首次脑卒中患者5年生存率为76.64%,受到发病年龄、诊治医院级别、脑卒中亚型、疾病史、吸烟和饮酒的影响。
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李玉荣
王冬飞
高媛媛
汪芬娟
林君英
蒋园园
赵芳芳
肖段段
关键词 脑卒中生存率生存分析影响因素    
AbstractObjective To understand the survival status and influencing factors of first-ever stroke patients, so as to provide evidence for improving the quality of life and prognosis of stroke patients. Methods Demographic information, medical history, smoking history, and alcohol consumption history of newly diagnosed stroke cases first reported in 2017 in Xiaoshan District were collected through the Hangzhou Chronic Disease Surveillance and Management System. Patients were followed up for 5 years, with stroke death as the outcome event. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and factors affecting survival time of first-ever stroke patients were identified using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results A total of 3 886 patients first-ever stroke patients were included, the cases of cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and stroke unspecified as to whether it was hemorrhagic or ischemic (unspecified) accounted for 86.93%, 11.45%, 1.06% and 0.57%, respectively. There were 2 047 males (52.68%) and 1 839 females (47.32%), with a mean onset age of (72.01±11.61) years. By the end of the follow-up on December 31, 2022, 906 patients died from stroke, with a median follow-up time of 62.00 (interquartile range, 35.00) months. The 1-year survival rate was 87.35% (95%CI: 86.30%-88.41%), the 3-year survival rate was 82.11% (95%CI: 80.88%-83.34%), and the 5-year survival rate was 76.64% (95%CI: 75.26%-78.02%), respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that onset age of ≥75 years (HR=5.543, 95%CI: 3.822-8.039), being treated at township-level hospitals (HR=5.934, 95%CI: 4.027-8.743), history of hypertension (HR=1.566, 95%CI: 1.317-1.863), history of chronic ischemic heart disease (HR=1.611, 95%CI: 1.362-1.906), smoking history (HR=1.455, 95%CI: 1.190-1.778), alcohol consumption history (HR=1.323, 95%CI: 1.067-1.641), stroke subtype of intracerebral hemorrhage (HR=3.442, 95%CI: 2.923-4.053) and unspecified (HR=6.843, 95%CI: 4.353-10.756) were associated with higher mortality risk among first-ever stroke patients. Conclusion The 5-year survival rate of first-ever stroke patients was 76.64%, which was influenced by age of onset, hospital level for diagnosis and treatment, stroke subtype, medical history, smoking and alcohol consumption.
Key wordsstroke    survival rate    survival analysis    influencing factor
收稿日期: 2024-04-28      修回日期: 2024-09-06      出版日期: 2024-10-10
中图分类号:  R743.3  
作者简介: 李玉荣,硕士,主管医师,主要从事慢性病预防与控制工作
通信作者: 林君英,E-mail:343780840@qq.com   
引用本文:   
李玉荣, 王冬飞, 高媛媛, 汪芬娟, 林君英, 蒋园园, 赵芳芳, 肖段段. 首次脑卒中患者生存率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2024, 36(10): 873-877.
LI Yurong, WANG Dongfei, GAO Yuanyuan, WANG Fenjuan, LIN Junying, JIANG Yuanyuan, ZHAO Fangfang, XIAO Duanduan. Analysis of survival rate among patients with first-ever stroke. Preventive Medicine, 2024, 36(10): 873-877.
链接本文:  
https://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/10.19485/j.cnki.issn2096-5087.2024.10.011      或      https://www.zjyfyxzz.com/CN/Y2024/V36/I10/873
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