Mortality and probability of premature death due to four chronic diseases in Taizhou City
WU Danhong1, WANG Weixia2, WANG Liangyou3, QIAO Dongju3, HUANG Yilu3, ZHANG Yan3
1. Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Wenling Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wenling, Zhejiang 317500, China; 2. Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310000, China; 3. Taizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taizhou, Zhejiang 318000, China
Abstract：Objective To understand the mortality and probability of premature death due to malignant tumors, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, so as to provide the basis for the improvement of chronic diseases prevention and control strategies. Methods The death data of the four chronic diseases among local residents in Taizhou City from 2019 to 2022 were collected through Taizhou Chronic Disease Information Management System, and the crude mortality, standardized mortality (standardized by the data of the seventh national population census in 2020) and probability of premature death were calculated. The trends in mortality and probability of premature death were analyzed using annual percent change (APC). The attainment of probability of premature death due to the four chronic diseases were evaluated using the target values and predicted values in 2025 and 2030. Results There were 119 899 deaths from the four chronic diseases in Taizhou City from 2019 to 2022, with the crude mortality of 494.48/105 and the standardized mortality of 410.68/105, which was no significant changing trend (APC=4.680% and -2.795%, both P>0.05). The probability of premature death decreased from 10.39% to 8.69% (APC=-6.027%, P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality in males were higher than those in females (562.13/105 vs. 424.08/105; 461.67/105 vs. 353.81/105; both P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality in rural areas were higher than those in urban areas (499.65/105 vs. 480.52/105; 429.20/105 vs. 365.68/105; both P<0.05). The probability of premature death in women and rural residents showed downward trends (APC=-8.210% and -7.558%, both P<0.05) from 2019 to 2022. The standardized mortality and probability of premature death due to malignant tumors showed downward trends (APC=-6.090% and -8.019%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality of diabetes showed an upward trend (APC=18.654%, P<0.05). The predicted values for probability of premature death due to due to the four chronic diseases in 2025 and 2030 were 7.27% and 5.40%, respectively, and were lower than the target values of 10.02% and 8.77%. Conclusions From 2019 to 2022, there was no significant trends in the mortality of four chronic diseases in Taizhou City, with rural men being the key population for prevention and control. The probability of premature death showed a downward trend, and it was expected to achieve the target in 2025 and 2030.
吴丹红, 王伟霞, 王良友, 乔冬菊, 黄依璐, 张嫣. 台州市4类慢性病死亡及早死概率分析[J]. 预防医学, 2024, 36(5): 428-431,436.
WU Danhong, WANG Weixia, WANG Liangyou, QIAO Dongju, HUANG Yilu, ZHANG Yan. Mortality and probability of premature death due to four chronic diseases in Taizhou City. Preventive Medicine, 2024, 36(5): 428-431,436.
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